The Latin American Post

Blue Gold: World Water Wars

2008-12-08T13:37:00.002Z

A couple of weeks back I wrote a post that questioned the plausibility of the plot behind the new James Bond film – “James Bond to the Rescue in Bolivia”. The plot hinging on the Bond-villain taking charge over Bolivian water supplies and attempting to pull-off some elaborate coup d’état. The plot may have been elaborate but that is not to say that the control and access to water is not a serious issue in the developing world – indeed it was Bolivian campesinos who gained almost overnight recognition in their fight against the water companies. In response the post I was, rightly, pointed in the direction of the documentary film: “Blue Gold: World Water Wars.”

Here is a trailer for the film - with street battling scenes from Bolivia included. I would like to say would it'll will be coming soon to your nearest cinema, but I'm afraid I don't think it's the type of mainstream documentary that's going to be troubling the Quantum of Solace anytime soon.

No Surprises: Highest Murder Rates in the World

2008-11-26T15:54:00.004Z

Latin America has the highest murder rates for young people in the world, according to a recently published study by the Brazilian research group - the Latin American Technological Information Network, Ritla

For youngsters growing up in crime-ridden countries like El Salvador, Colombia or Venezuela the chances of being murdered are almost 30 times higher than in Europe. The study looked at 83 countries across the world and depressingly Latin America came out as the region with most youth killings in proportion to its population. And the readings become even more depressing if you choose to include Caribbean nations - as this grim top 10 list of youth killings per 100.000 indicates:

El Salvador: 48.8
Colombia: 43.8
Venezuela: 29.5
Guatemala: 28.5
The Virgin Islands: 28.4
Brazil: 25.2
Santa Lucia: 24.5
Puerto Rico: 19.1
Guyana: 18.0
Ecuador: 18.0

A news article of this story can be found on the BBC website: "Latin America tops murder tables",

Venezuealan Regional Elections

2008-11-25T18:35:00.005Z

The media spotlight was again on Venezuela this last weekend as regional elections were held. Would President Chavez consolidate power, would the opposition make significant gains, and would the perceived under-attack democratic norms be upheld?

In the end it was a case of both sides being able to claim some form of victory - Chavistas won the popular vote (53.5%) and 17 of the 22 states; the main opposition group won 5 states, amongst which were Miranda and Zulia, the country's two most populous states. The opposition was also able to win the mayoral elections in Caracas. As the map below shows, support for president Chavez remains on the face of it pretty solid throughout the country. However the fact that the opposition gained support in the highly populous and electorally crucial "coastal corridor", seems to suggest that the large sway of red Chavista support marginally overstates the extent of Chavez's popularity.

All in all these elections haven't told us anything that we didn't know before. Yes, Chavez remains popular throughout much of Venezuela. But also, the opposition support is gaining momentum, bouyed by the victory in the last referendum alongside good mobilisation of supporters in the country's larger cities. And of course the substantial downturn in oil prices has its effects on which way the votes swing. Drop any further and Chavez will be unlikey to dare push for a referendum that would allow him to run for re-election (again) in 2012.

As far as democratic norms are concerned the electoral commission described the conduct of voters as exemplary, and Hugo Chavez was almost magnamonious in defeat:

"We lost the governorship of Miranda and we recognise the triumph of our adversaries," he said. "How can anyone say there is a dictatorship in Venezuela? I, as head of state, recognise their triumphs and I hope that they'll recognise the head of state."

For a detailed, though slight pro-government, review of the election try the Venezualan Information Centre (VIC) Bloggers at Caracas Chronicles also have detailed reports, graphs and opinions on the outcome of the elections.

James Bond to the rescue...in Bolivia!

2008-11-22T17:19:00.006Z

A whole series of predominantly negative reviews have meant that I have yet to see the new James Bond film, the Quantum of Solace. Nevertheless I have to admit to being mildly tempted to see how the Bond series could possibly include a storyline that references the struggling campesinos of the Bolivian Altiplano and their fight against Western multinationals:

Bond is on a mission to stop a faux-environmentalist billionaire from secretly appropriating all of Bolivia’s water supply by replacing its left of centre president with a handpicked despot, in a coup which the USA blithely ignores

Having done the Cold War, terrorist and media mogul villains to death I guess it was time for Bond to move on to tackle the perceived villains of the 21st century. But are we honestly meant to believe that theses battles can ever be won by action-man bravado alone?

As this article in The New Statesman, "007 Bolivian socialist?", points out, the Bond story writers have obviously scant regard for the capabilities of Bolivian social uprising in the face of corrupt governments and grasping multinationals – Bolivia needs not the intervention of some dinner jacket-clad action hero, but has been able to succeed over the years with more simpler means, such as demonstrations, road blockades and even the ballot box. Hmm...I think the New Statesman article does take the Bond film a tad too seriously - I don't think they've ever been held as depicting a realistic political commentary on the pressing security issues of the day.

Still, it's a shame the film was never actually filmed in Bolivia. Indeed I'm sure the fact that they used Chile as a stand-in for Bolivia, is hardly to endear Bolivians to film.

The Demise of Regional Division in Bolivia?

2008-11-14T19:12:00.004Z

The rise of Santa Cruz as the political and economic hegemonic power has been evident the last many decades in Bolivia. Under President Evo Morales however, it has seen its ability to frame the shape of the country undermined. This has resulted in clashes, both in Congress, the constituent assembly and in the streets of Santa Cruz and other ‘media luna’ towns. The media in its typical simplistic terms depicting the struggle as one of poor, indigenous, ardent Morales supporters of the Western Highlands up against the rich, white, land-rich Eastern Provinces of Santa Cruz et al.

Where do these regional clashes leave Bolivia and what is the future of Santa Cruz’s political and economic power base? These were some of the questions the Bolivian academic, George Grey Molina, tried to answer in a brief talk he gave at the Institute for the Study of the Americas here in London this week. After weeks and months of bad news and confrontation coming out of Bolivia, George Molina’s hypotheses had a surprisingly upbeat tone about them.

He began his talk by going over recent events since the violent clashes that erupted across Bolivia, and most notably in Pando - the remote northern department. See "State of siege, more violence in Bolivian province Pando (Roundup)"

Essentially, the out-of-control violence that threatened to escalate across the nation forced Morales supporters and opponents to sit down and set out a timeline for an upcoming constitutional referendum. A constitution that now includes enough amendments to keep the majority of Morales’ opponents content for the time being. It has also given it the necessary nationwide legitimacy that makes it likely to pass when it’s put to a referendum early next year.

George Molina was at pains to point out that Morales had emerged from these agreements with his power consolidated , whilst the power of Santa Cruz had been severely constrained. Santa Cruz’s power has traditionally stemmed from its economic power ( i.e. it’s ownership of the wealthy soya- exporting lands of the East) and its ability to transfer this economic leverage into political power through an increased presence on the national political stage and in its move towards greater regional autonomy. However for a number of reasons these foundations seem to be slowly crumbling:

National Politics: the national political stage has been transformed under Morales’ presidency with the old Santa Cruz elite having been usurped by a Morales elite that has consolidated itself after this summers’ national recall referendum.

Santa Cruz Economy: The Cruceño economy is perhaps not as strong as it once was. Commodity prices, on which it heavily depends, haven fallen through the floor. Vast tracts of arable land are no longer the most country’s most important asset – there will a transfer of economic power to those actors in the economy who can process the country’s resources, i.e. those who can produce value-added goods.

Demographics: Santa Cruz is no longer predominantly made up of the white European decedents, who in their day were able to create a unique Cruceño identity – migration to the region from across Bolivia has meant that it is taking on other characteristics that are…more Bolivian.

Did Not Create a Viable National Politics: Whilst Santa Cruz was on the ascendency it showed little in its politics that it could become the vessel of change that Bolivia so badly needs. It did little to diversify its economy from primary resources and next to nothing in cooperating with neighboring countries. Instead it promoted a politics that retained the status quo and essentially the privilege of the few over the masses.

Natural Gas Capital has moved to Tarija: Unlike Santa Cruz, Tarija has no history of separatist ambitions and looks unlikely to spear-head a new regional hegemony.

As far as George Molina is concerned the above arguments point towards a situation in Bolivia where regional politics no longer plays the same divisive role as it has done in the past and with so much intensity during Morales’ presidency until now.

Of course that is not to say that this will mark an end to all regional disputes. Indeed it is now up to Morales and his grand goals of moving the Bolivian economy beyond commodity-led growth; towards an economy that creates industrialists and deep linkages within the economy and between regions. Only if this is achieved will regionalist movements, like the ones in Santa Cruz, cease to have the influence that they have had for the last many decades.

South Park does Peruvian Panpipe Music

2008-10-24T00:00:00.004+01:00

This is for everyone who has pondered over why there always seems to be a travelling Peruvian panpipe band doing your local High Street. All that was missing was that they started up playing "El Condor Pasa".

Thanks to "The Latin Americanist" for finding this.

Financial & Economic Crisis hits Latin America

2008-10-23T21:56:00.006+01:00

It was the turn of Latin America's stock market to take a nose dive this Wednesday - "Dark day for faltering LatAm stocks" . In Chile they dropped 6.3%, in Mexico by 7 %, in Brazil by 10%, and last but by no means least Argentina, where they dropped by 18%.

The magnitude of the drop in Argentina was provoked when President Cristina Fernandez announced plans to nationalise the private pension funds.

She said the nationalisation would protect retirement funds from the global financial crisis, but analysts said the move would drain company access to private capital. Argentina's Congress is expected to approve the proposal within weeks. BBC News: "Turmoil in Latin American Markets".

Privare investors have been upin arms, not least a Merrill Lynch executive who stated bluntly that his bank had now written off any investment plans in Argentina "for at least the next half decade." - AFP, "Latin America in Jaws of Global Crisis"

As I mentioned in an earlier post - "Global Depression: So What About Latin America" - much of the worry in Latin America on the back of the current world financial crisis, stems not so much from the so-called credit crunch, but rather the sharp recession that's meant to hit the world's major markets in the Northern hemisphere, and the decline in commodity prices that it will entail.

Correspondents say international demand is declining for many of Latin America's commodity exports, including oil, copper, iron ore and soy as global growth slows amid the current financial global crisis BBC News, "Turmoil in Latin American Markets".

Whilst demand may be faltering in the US and Europe, demand from the likes of China is still bouyant.

This is not to say that all is as gloomy as one could fear. Precious global recessions have tended to hit Latin America harder than most. The analogy of "when the US economy sneezes, the rest of the world cathces a cold, but Latin America catches phnuemonia" having proven to be quite fitting in th past. This time round things may be slightly different. According to former Mexican foreign minister, Jorge Castañeda:

the region would be largely impervious to the recent crisis. Mexico, Chile, Brazil and Uruguay should manage just fine, emerging with only bruises and scrapes, he argued. Colombia and Peru would weather the storm, though suffering greater harm. But he warned of "severe damage" for Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Central America and the Caribbean. BBC News, "Brazil squares up to an economic storm"

The severe damage awaiting Venezuela has much to do with the sudden drop in oil prices. Overdependent on oil revenues, Venezuela's extensive public spending could be seriouly affected if oil prices continue on this downward trend. It is therefore no surprise that Venezuela qill be pushing for oil output cuts at this week's hastily convened OPEC gathering in Vienna.

Venezuelan Oil Minister Rafael D. Ramirez said the OPEC members "have to take some action now, now," adding that Friday's meeting will reach "consensus to take a very, very, very fast action." Xinhua, "OPEC members divided over oilput cut"

Last week I attended a public meeting at the Houses of Parliament here in London, where Venezuelan ambassador to the UK, Samuel Moncada, whilst almost gleeful in his depiction of the collapse of the world's financial system, had to admit that Venezuela faced difficult times ahead. So what about all the windfall funds from record-high oil prices that the Venezuelan had been meant to have store away for precisely those times when the oil prices were on the fall? Well, according to the ambassador this would only cover Venezuela's problems for a mere 2-3 months.

Is Obama right to object to Colombian FTA?

2008-10-22T18:48:00.004+01:00

In my previous post, I mentioned how US Presidential candidates, Barack Obama and John McCain had a relatively heated exchange on the pros and cons of a free trade agreement with Colombia. McCain came out in favour of it, with Obama arguing against it due to Colombia’s problematic human rights record, especially with regard to trade union members.

The Wall Street Journal published an editorial - "Obama makes it up" - strongly criticizing Obama’s stand and eluded to the fact that he is backed by the very same US trade unions that are perhaps not to keen to see a FTA with Colombia. Here is a video excerpt that shows columnist Mary O’Grady explaining why Obama’s objection to the FTA is nonsensical and based on facts that just don’t add up.

To counter her argument Benjamin Gaden on notes:

Neither O'Grady nor the WSJ editorial make note of a new 140-page report from Human Rights Watch, released last Thursday, that accuses Uribe of "jeopardizing efforts to secure justice for crimes committed by paramilitaries and their accomplices in Colombia." The report also points out that international pressure, such as delays in passing the Free Trade Agreement, "has in some cases prevented the government from trying to let paramilitaries’ accomplices off the hook." "Colombia’s justice institutions have made enormous progress in investigating paramilitaries and their powerful friends," José Miguel Vivanco, the Americas director at Human Rights Watch, said in a press release announcing the report. "But the Uribe administration keeps taking steps that could sabotage these investigations."

Latin America Debated in the US Presidential Debates

2008-10-21T14:27:00.007+01:00

Latin America has been notable only its absent from the US Presidential debates.

In the first two debates between Barack Obama and John McCain and the VP debate between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin Latin America was mentioned fleetingly, Hugo Chávez denounced as a demagogue and Palin accusing Obama of wanting to have sit down in direct talks with the ‘Castro Brothers’. Nothing very substantial at all.

To everyone’s relief the 3rd debate proved a whole lot more invigorating and most noteworthy, for this blog, a couple of important issues relating to Latin America were discussed - dependency on Venezuelan oil, NAFTA, FTAs with Peru and Colombia.

Here is a transcript excerpt from the debate:

SCHIEFFER: All right. Can we reduce our dependence on foreign oil and by how much in the first term, in four years?

MCCAIN: I think we can, for all intents and purposes, eliminate our dependence on Middle Eastern oil and Venezuelan oil. Canadian oil is fine. By the way, when Senator Obama said he would unilaterally renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, the Canadians said, "Yes, and we'll sell our oil to China." You don't tell countries you're going to unilaterally renegotiate agreements with them.

[…]

OBAMA: I think that in ten years, we can reduce our dependence so that we no longer have to import oil from the Middle East or Venezuela. I think that's about a realistic timeframe. Now I just want to make one last point because Senator McCain mentioned NAFTA and the issue of trade and that actually bears on this issue. I believe in free trade. But I also believe that for far too long, certainly during the course of the Bush administration with the support of Senator McCain, the attitude has been that any trade agreement is a good trade agreement. And NAFTA doesn't have -- did not have enforceable labor agreements and environmental agreements.

[…]

MCCAIN: Now, on the subject of free trade agreements. I am a free trader. And I need -- we need to have education and training programs for displaced workers that work, going to our community colleges. But let me give you another example of a free trade agreement that Senator Obama opposes. Right now, because of previous agreements, some made by President Clinton, the goods and products that we send to Colombia, which is our largest agricultural importer of our products, is -- there's a billion dollars that we -- our businesses have paid so far in order to get our goods in there. Because of previous agreements, their goods and products come into our country for free. So Senator Obama, who has never traveled south of our border, opposes the Colombia Free Trade Agreement. The same country that's helping us try to stop the flow of drugs into our country that's killing young Americans. And also the country that just freed three Americans that will help us create jobs in America because they will be a market for our goods and products without having to pay -- without us having to pay the billions of dollars -- the billion dollars and more that we've already paid.Free trade with Colombia is something that's a no-brainer. But maybe you ought to travel down there and visit them and maybe you could understand it a lot better.

OBAMA: Let me respond. Actually, I understand it pretty well. The history in Colombia right now is that labor leaders have been targeted for assassination on a fairly consistent basis and there have not been prosecutions. And what I have said, because the free trade -- the trade agreement itself does have labor and environmental protections, but we have to stand for human rights and we have to make sure that violence isn't being perpetrated against workers who are just trying to organize for their rights, which is why, for example, I supported the Peruvian Free Trade Agreement which was a well-structured agreement. But I think that the important point is we've got to have a president who understands the benefits of free trade but also is going to enforce unfair trade agreements and is going to stand up to other countries.

And here's a video excerpt from the debate that highlights Obama's and McCain's differences regarding a possible FTA with Colombia:

South American World Cup Qualification - 10th Round

2008-10-20T12:26:00.008+01:00

In a brief post here are the results from matchday 10 of South American qualifying competition for the World Cup.

Chile vs. Argentina: 1-0
Bolivia vs. Uruguay: 2-2
Paraguay vs. Peru: 1-0
Brazil vs. Colombia: 0-0
Venezuela vs. Ecuador: 3-1

These results leaving the qualifying table looking like this:

Paraguay: 23 pts.
Brazil: 17 pts
Argentina 17 pts.
Chile 16 pts.
Uruguay 13 pts.
Ecuador 12 pts.
Colombia 11 pts.
Venezuela 10 pts.
Bolivia 9 pts.
Peru 7 pts.

Paraguay are seemingly running away with the qualification campaign leaving the region's giants - Brazil and Argentina - to fumble about, scrapping points against teams they should normally be able to put away with ease. For Argentina, their defeat away to Chile, the first time this has happened in absolute eons, marked the end for Argentine coach Alfio Basile. The writing had supposedly been on the wall for a good few months now. Lacklustre performances, an endless procession of drab draws in recent matches was not want the Argentine public were demanding. Especailly since Argentina stormed to a gold medal at the Olympics, sweeping aside Brazil along the way. But, this under the guidance of the younger a more attack-minded Sergio Batista - Basile having opted of a leading the young Argentine squad at the Olympics.

Here is what BBC's Latin American football specialist Tim Vickery of Basile's legacy:

But as Basile leaves the scene, he deserves to be remembered. He is one of the game's romantics, for whom the joy of expression speaks louder than the fear of defeat - a philosophy that might be old fashioned, but which should never be out of date.

He remains the last Argentina coach to win a title at senior level - the 1991 and 93 Copa America triumphs from his first spell in charge, which ended with one of the great World Cup matches of recent times, the 3-2 defeat to Romania in 1994. It was a classic tie of attack versus counter-attack, made attractive by the fact that Argentina accepted the risks of taking the game to their opponents.

The highlight of his second spell, before the breakdown in relationships started corroding performance, came last year in the Copa America.It ended in tears, stiffled and picked off by Brazil in the final. But the previous matches were an exhibition of passing football, patient and audacious, hypnotic and dazzling. Being there in Venezuela to watch Alfio Basile's side in action was an immense privilege

Qualification games take a bit of a break for the next few months, with the next not taking place until late March. Plenty of time I'm sure for the Argentine media to get hyped up about the return of the prodigal son, Maradonna, as a possible successor.

The Freezing of US-Bolivian Relations

2008-10-20T01:42:00.004+01:00

Before the world financial crisis enveloped the world's news media and when news from Latin American actually made it across the Atlantic, there was the episode of diplomatic tit-for-tat tussling that involved the expulsion of US ambassadors from Bolivia, Venezuela and Honduras. Media outlets jumping naturally at the chance to picture yet another fiery anti-imperialist outburst by demagogue Hugo Chávez.

That the flurry of departing ambassadors had its origin in Bolivia is now long forgotten. With the US having retaliated by expelling Bolivia’s ambassador to Washington I would have that would have been that…just let the simmering US-Bolivian hostilities be. Let's just wait until a new US administration can come into the White House and proclaim their ‘good neighbourliness’ towards the region it sort out the mess – but that’s a topic to be discussed in another post further down the line.

But no... George Bush has taken it upon himself to ensure that Bolivia realizes the errors of their ways. Since 1991, Bolivia has benefited from the Andean Trade Preference Act (ATPDEA) that allowed certain Bolivian exporters favourable access to the US market. This in exchange for Bolivian cooperation in tackling illegal coca production. Overriding Congress and their decision two weeks ago to extend the agreement, Bush has chosen in a single stroke threaten the livelihood of thousands of Bolivians, by suspending the agreement. A possible 20,000 Bolivians may lose their jobs as companies face closure without access to the lucrative US market.

Here is a video the Bolivian-based NGO, The Democracy Center posted showing the plight of a number of workers face in light of this decision by the Bush administration.

As much as I can sympathise with those who point to Morales' lack of diplomatic finesse in throwing out the US ambassador, I find it hard to agree that this justifies the decision by Bush to, in a single stroke, threaten the livelihood of thousands of Bolivians, especially in the midst of world financial crisis where it will be the Bolivias of the world that will face the direst of consequences. Besides, won't this only legitimise his anti-American stance and worsen legitimate US attempts to tackle coca production?

The Once Glorious Uruguayan World Cup Winners

2008-10-14T17:13:00.004+01:00

In the wake of the weekend's South American world cup qualifiers, The Times, had a great piece on the River Plate derby, Argentina vs. Uruguay - Past masters Uruguay burdened by the weight of history.

On Saturday, Uruguay succumbed to a 2-1 defeat away to Argentina and will need a win away to Bolivia this Wednesday if they are to get back into the automatic qualifying places for the World Cup.

Scrapping to get into the World Cup, and then failing to make it pass the group stages seems to be the perennial outcome of every Uruguayan World Cup campaign. Never likely to reach the lofty heights they once achieved back in the first half of the 20th century when they lifted the World Cup trophy in 1930 and 1950.

Watching Uruguay play is a bit like driving past the boarded-up shop-fronts of a once-thriving city centre. The phantasms of a glorious past haunt you. Occasionally you see flashes of pride and quality, more often you see a rage against the dying of the light. Except, whereas a depressed city centre might hold out hope to be regenerated, Uruguay will probably never regain its footballing greatness

To read about plight of Uruguayan football and their resignation to being a mere Latin American football minnow, do check out this article. Past masters Uruguay burdened by the weight of history.

South American World Cup Qualification: Round #9

2008-10-14T08:59:00.005+01:00

Here are the results and standings from the weekend's South American Qualification games:

Bolivia vs Peru 3-0
Argentina vs. Uruguay 2-1
Colombia vs. Paraguay 0-1
Venezuela vs. Brazil 0-4
Ecuador vs. Chile: 1-0

Paraguay 20 pts.
Brazil 16 pts.
Argentina 16 pts.
Chile 13 pts.
Uruguay 12 pts
Ecuador 12 pts
Colombia 12 pts
Bolivia 8 pts
Venezuela 7 pts
Peru 7 pts

Paraguay remain on course for World Cup 2010 qualification and with a home game coming up against Peru this Wednesday should be able to consolidate their standing at the top of the South American group. Any doubts that Brazil would be struggling in this qualification group are being slowly laid to rest as they notched up another victory, albeit against minnows footballing minnows Venezuela.

Global Depression: So What about Latin America?

2008-10-12T23:18:00.004+01:00

In the midst of the financial turmoil that has swept ominously across North America and Europe, news how this may affect Latin American economies – traditionally so dependent upon the state of the U.S economy – has been somewhat hard to come by in the British press.

Nevertheless, last week’s The Economist did have an article highlighting the numerous pessimistic scenarios that may be played out in Latin America as a result of the financial turmoil in the world’s credit markets – “Keeping their fingers crossed”. True to its right-of-centre, pro-market editorial line it predicted that the “badly behaved” economies (i.e. overly statist and anti-neoliberal), such as those in Venezuela and Argentina, are the one that are most vulnerable.

Their vulnerability stems not so much from the lack of credit available to them, but their overreliance on commodities: Venezuela on oil, Argentina on agricultural produce. The belief being that a downturn in the world economy would naturally lead to a slump in commodity prices.

Other Latin American countries look set to be hit by a decline in commodity prices as they have fallen to the age-old temptation of overspending when times have been good and consequently saving little for when times worsen. Bucking the trend, as is so often the case when it comes to perceived sound economic management, is Chile where its copper stabilization fund should insolate the economy from a slump in copper prices.

Fortunately for the likes of Brazil, Colombia and Peru – “the well-behaved countries” in The Economist’s tinted eyes – their trade surpluses and balanced budgets, records of year-on-year growth, and lack of dependency on the increasingly limited sources of foreign credit should offer their respective economies the means to avoid the recession that has so often followed in the wake of U.S. downturns.

But all isn’t rosy in the case of Mexico, and indeed with most Central American and Caribbean nations. By remaining so dependent on US markets and remittances from relatives working in the US, the severity of the economic crisis facing the US will have the inevitable effect of casting a long murky shadow over their economies. Perhaps this will nail home the argument that despite the lure of the US market Latin American nations can only benefit from diversifying trading partners, increasing regional trade and so on.

In the aftermath of all this financial mess it seems likely – especially if the Democrats retake the White House – that all proposed free trade agreements with Latin America are to be put firmly on hold; furthering the need for Latin America to look towards China and the rest of Asia.

Despite the relative upbeat tones, The Economist makes sure to hammer home that it will be the Bolivarian following of Chavéz et al and their economic populist policies that have most to fear from the global credit crunch.

Will the Brazilian Police be Taking Note?

2008-09-23T16:09:00.004+01:00

Three years on, and the inquest into the fatal police shooting of Brazilian, Jean Charles de Menezes, remains ongoing.

Today on the TV news we could watch judge, jury, lawyers and de Menezes’ family being shown around the underground passages of Stockwell tube station, re-enacting Jean Charles’ final movements, before he was shot at point blank range by anti-terrorist police officers.

Tragic as the whole incident is, I can’t help but at least commend the British judicial system in assuring that this horrific accidence is understood and the surveillance system that failed so horribly is brought to account. The question that lingers at the back of my mind is, whether the same level of insistence to come to the bottom of such a police error would be taking place, had this happened in Jean Charles’ native Brazil? A flicker through any of the cop-films coming out of Brazil, such as “Elite Squad”, and you get a picture of the extreme use of violence by the Brazilian police force, and their perceived immunity in the face of any misuse of power. I wonder what attention the inquest into de Menezes’ death is getting back in Brazil and whether or not the Brazilian police are taking notice...

Anti-Americanism Alive and Well in Latin America

2008-09-22T11:57:00.007+01:00

An e-mail in my inbox asked me to part with a few hours of my time last Wednesday, standing outside in the Autumn cold and picketing the US embassy here in London. US ambassadors to Bolivia and Venezuela were in the space of a couple of days sent packing amidst accusations of fomenting regional violence in Bolivia and plotting to overthrow Chávez. According to the protesters:

US President George W Bush has made it his top priority to overthrow the new left-wing governments in Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador and others before he leaves office at the end of the year (www.handsoffvenezuela.org)

Whilst I have no doubt that the US would shed no tears if either Evo Morales or Hugo Chávez were finally toppled, the recent expulsions of the respective US ambassadors has far more to do with Morales' and Chávez's populist support to a large extent consolidated by their anti-US positions.

With Russian battleships on course for Venezuelan waters for joint exercises, US may indeed have cause for concern regarding Chávez's strategic alliances - "Russian navy sails to Venezuela." Is this yet more evidence of yesteryear's Cold War battle lines being redrawn as Russia strengthens its ties in and increases its presence in Latin America - just as it did in Cuba in the 1960s? And then there are continuing anti-democratic measures taken by Chávez; the most recent being the expelling of human rights activists after having accused Chávez's government of "openly endors[ing] acts of discrimination" - "Venezuela expels two human rights activist" But are these legitimate causes for concern enough for the US to reattempt its misguided foray into overthrowing democratically elected leaders?

And what does the US gain from further destabilising Bolivia? Aside from the issue of Morales' government not doing enough to cut down on coca production, there is very little his government can be accused of that directly goes against US interests. The US has little interest in Bolivian gas reserves and their recent nationalisation. And surely they must realise that the toppling of a President that only weeks was strengthened his mandate with 67% of the popular vote in the recall referendum.

The history of US interventionism etched into the Latin American psyche, the extent to which it imbues populist rhetoric, ultimately renders the need for sound reasoning behind these anti-US conspiracies completely unnecessary. Even with George Bush at the helm, this mode of politics should not play a central role in any Latin American nations' foreign policy. Yes, the USA is by no means the 'Good Neighbour' it had once set itself up to be. But far more stands to be lost in the long-term by doing your utmost to strain relations with USA, merely for the purpose of short-term populist/nationalist gains.

This is not to say that the US are wholeheartedly innocent either. Failing to show strong enough support for the democratically-elected leaders of both countries is seen as a green light for opposition movements in Venezuela and Bolivia to challenge their Presidents in any way they see fit - as was the case with the failed coup in Venezuela in 2002 and with the violence in Bolivia right now.

Needless to say I did not spend last Wednesday afternoon picketing the US embassy.

Bolivia Election: Post-Mortem

2008-08-21T18:12:00.005+01:00

It's been almost two weeks since the recall referendum took place in Bolivia. I have been wanting to comment on it for a while now, but a mixture of being stuck with my dissertation, transfixed to the TV watching the Olympics, working 9-5 as in intern with Latinnews.com, and last but not least, without Internet connection has meant that I've been somewhat incapable of posting anything of relevance of late.

So anyway it was meant to be ‘make or break’ time for President Evo Morales. I for one harboured doubts as to whether he would be able to win over the electorate given that Bolivia seems to be on the brink of internal collapse.

Opposition leaders in Santa Cruz et.el (or the "Media Luna" as the best known by) have been relentless in their critique of Evo Morales, and the international media has been quick to catch onto images of protests, blockades and violent skirmishes.

However, the fact that Morales won a resounding 67% of the vote and even encroaching upon the popularity of the “Media Luna” regional leaders (whose leadership was also up for re-election), shows that underneath the surface, the Bolivian majority still believe in giving Morales and his indigenous/socialist/resource-nationalist experiment a chance.

Anyway for a far better analysis of where the recall referendum leaves Bolivia, there is no one better than Jim Shultz (head of the NGO 'The Democracy Centre') and his “Blog from Bolivia” and his post, "Bolivia Election: Post Mortem"

Violent Outbreaks in Santa Cruz

2008-08-19T11:55:00.002+01:00

The Bolivian government seeks to charge opposition prefect Ruben Costas for stirring up violence over the weekend in Santa Cruz as rifts between the government and the “media luna” department heighten.

Santa Cruz’s chief of police, Wilge Obleas, has been forced to stand down on medical grounds, after having suffered injuries in the violent attacks that marred Santa Cruz this weekend. In the wake of the police forcefully removing protestors from a YPFB installation, disturbances broke out between the police force and radical autonomists, including the Unión Juvenil Cruceñista (UJC), resulting in more than 20 people being wounded. The government has since accused Rúben Costas and president of the civic committee Branco Marincovik for the subsequent attacks on the police headquarters in Santa Cruz, in what it sees as calculated attempt to provoke increasing levels of violence in the opposition-led department and undermine the national police force. Santa Cruz prefect Rubén Costas, however, lays the blame at the government’s feet and is now demanding that any future police chief be accountable to him and not the national governemt. Nevertheless, it remains to be seen how any judicial proceedings will brought against the Costas and Marincovik given the legal vacuum at the top of Bolivia’s judiciary due to vacancies in key judicial institutions, or whether this is an conscious attempt by the government to isolate Rúben Costas after “media luna’s” disappointing results in the recall referendum.

In the aftermath of last week’s recall referendum, which resulted in Evo Morles having secured more than 67% of the vote, there has been a move by the Bolivian government to increase the dialogue with the “media luna” departments. The fact that Evo Morales was able to increase his vote in all four of the opposition-held departments, with a majority of Bolivians supporting him in previously hostile departments of Tarija and Pando, has weakened the mandate of the “media luna” in their bid for increased autonomy.

The rift between the central government and the “media luna” is set to deepen with opposition leaders in the 5 departments planning general strikes for next Tuesday. The regional opposition leaders are demanding that the government retract the move to redirect the IDH revenues that previously went to the regions themselves. The government uses this additional tax revenue to fund a nation-wide pension plan. The gas rich department, on the hand, believe that the loss of revenue will limit their ability to carry out important regional projects.

History Repeating Itself?

2008-08-04T23:26:00.003+01:00

Here are a few exercts from an article I found in the International Herald Tribune. Of course there is nothing to worry about, but isn't this all so reminsicent of the early 1960s and the run-up to the Cuban Missile Crisis? http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/08/04/europe/cuba.php

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is calling for Russia to regain its influence with Cuba, a former Cold War ally of the Soviet Union, Russian news reports said Monday.
The statement was made amid persistent speculation about whether Russia was seeking a military presence in a country just 150 kilometers, or 90 miles, from the United States in response to U.S. plans to place parts of a missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic. It is not a secret that the West is creating a 'buffer zone' around Russia, involving countries in central Europe, the Caucasus, the Baltic states and Ukraine," the agency quoted Leonid Ivashov, the head of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, as saying. "In response, we may expand our military presence abroad, including in Cuba."Russia opposes U.S. plans to put missile-defense elements in eastern Europe, saying the facilities are aimed at undermining Russia's missile potential. Russia has threatened an unspecified "military technical" response if the plans go through.
Last month, the Defense Ministry denied a major Russian newspaper's report that the country was considering placing nuclear-capable bombers in Cuba - a move that would have echoed the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Argentina's National Airline Renationalised

2008-07-22T17:14:00.006+01:00

Any general overview of Latin American economic history will show you how attitudes for or against nationalisations and privatisations swing back and forth over time with a pendulum-like consistency.

The 1980s and 1990s saw the pendulum of state vs. private debate swing back in favour of privatisation after the presumed overreach, corruption and mismanagement of the state-owned enterprises of the mid-20th century. SOEs were meant to have fuelled economic development in many a Latin American country. Unsurprisingly, perhaps, it wasn’t long before the pendulum swung back the other way and privatisation became a word that any politician sought to distance themselves from as far as humanly possible. Of course this didn't always stop them from implementing privatisation. In Bolivia during the 1990s, President Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada was somehow able to hood-wink the Bolivian people into believing that when he was selling off the rights of the country’s natural resources to foreign multinationals, it wasn’t so much 'privatisation' but rather 'capitalisation'. Yes, there is a difference, but it’s a slight one at best. And it ultimately left the Bolivian government unable to benefit from the huge windfalls that were soon to be made from Bolivia's recently discovered huge natural gas reserves. But more on that in my dissertation paper...

Anyway what drew my attention today through my daily trawl through the BBC website was the news that the Argentine government is to renationalise its floundering airline, Aerolineas Argentinas - Argentine Airline Set For Bumpy Ride. The national airline was one of many companies to been sold off rapidly when Carlos Menem was Argentine President back in the 1990s. Now with the left-of-centre and so-called ‘back-to-the-roots populist Peronism’ of the Kirchner's in hold of the Casa Rosada (Buenos Aires's answer to the White House) a number of the sectors once privatised by Menem have been renationalised.

It seems pretty obvious that it’s going to be hard, if not impossible to bring Aerolineas Argentinas back into profit. Then this nationalisation isn’t just about making a profit. Okay there is the nationalistic sentiment – something Argentines have in bucket loads - that goes hand-in-hand with having a national airline. And with a majority of Argentines actually favouring the government taking control of the airline, it would make political sense for under-pressure President Cristina Kirchner to do something that for once wouldn’t have half the nation up in arms. However I think in a country like Argentina, a country that is so immense in its geographic dimensions, with numerous far-away provinces that depend upon a direct link to the capital, needs a national airline. An airline that is more concerned with servicing these far-away communities than with make a profit at the end of the year.

Bolivia in the National Geographic

2008-07-21T17:43:00.009+01:00

Whilst Bolivian politics takes yet another ugly turn - Evo Morales in a recall referendum and further clamouring from the Eastern provinces - photos from a recent National Geographic article reminds us of the natural wonders that have been endowed upon this troubles Andean nation. For some truly great photos from Bolivia's vast Altiplano region check out this interactive map "Photography Map: Altiplano"

Of course the articles that go along with dazzling photos (Bolivia's New Order & Riding with Evo) try hard to give an accessible account of the rise of Bolivia's new order,"the ascent to power of a new elite of militant indigenous people." And along the way you do get the feeling that they've been carried away slightly by this over-romanticised indigenous uprising and fail to question the viability of the country's current direction. But hey it's the National Geographic for goodness sake, not The Economist. So hats off for them for that, and besides who honestly can't get slightly carried away by this astonishing rise from rural serfdom to the Presidential Palace, which the indigenous people have undertaken in recent decades...I was.

“¡El Gas Nos Pertenece Por Derecho!”: The Nationalisation Of Bolivian Gas As A Viable Means To Development?

2008-07-15T22:12:00.002+01:00

Given that I’ll be spending the next 2 months of my life frantically putting together my Master’s dissertation I guess I will be giving the general Latin American news stuff a bit of a rest. However, I do still intend to keep posting, though I’m afraid that you’ll have to make do with all things Bolivian, especially if they relate to Evo Morales’ attempts at renationalizing the hydrocarbon sector.

Is This the End for FARC?

2008-07-13T19:28:00.002+01:00

Stockhom Syndrome Anyone?

2008-07-08T11:38:00.004+01:00

It’s not an unusual occurrence for hostages after their release to show signs of loyalty or compassion toward their hostage-takers - the psychological response more famously known as the Stockholm syndrome.

It can’t have escaped the attention of anyone the rescue of Ingrid Betancourt and 14 other hostages from the grips of the Colombian FARC after countless years of captivity in the jungle. Now that they are free, the question remains…any signs of the mysterious Stockholm syndrome emerging?

One could begin to point that finger at Ingrid Betancourt who, in a recent interview, came out urging Colombian President Alvaro Uribe should soften his towards her ex-captors, the FARC.

Colombian President Alvaro Uribe should soften his tone when dealing with the Marxist FARC guerrillas, freed hostage Ingrid Betancourt said on Monday, urging him to break with the language of "hatred".Betancourt was rescued last week after more than six years in the jungle as a captive of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), in an operation that was widely seen as a vindication of Uribe's hardline stance against the guerrillas.The FARC is still holding hundreds of captives and Betancourt, who flew to Paris within 48 hours of her release, said Uribe should change tack to help secure their freedom."President Uribe, and not just President Uribe but Colombia as a whole, should change some things," Betancourt told RFI radio, making her first public criticism of her one-time political rival since her liberation."I think the time has come to change the language of radicalism, extremism and hatred, the very strong words that cause deep hurt to a human being," she said, adding that tolerance and respect were needed."There comes a timewhen one has to agree to talk to the people you hate," she said. (source Reuters 07/07/2008)

Interesting comments and ones that definitely keep open any future desires she may have to use her ordeal to further her political career. And perhaps more importantly, it would allow her to become a key negotiator with FARC in her endeavor to free the remaining political prisoners. So anyone pointing the ‘Stockholm syndrome’ finger at her would be mistaken.

Also freed in the same daring rescue mission were 3 US defence contractors, who spoke out yesterday about their ordeal. Unsurprisingly, given their jobs, they came out with some pretty harsh language against the FARC…along with a fair share of American patriotic flag waving.

I want to tell you about the FARC, a guerrilla group that claim to be revolutionaries, fighting for the poor people of Colombia. They say that they want equality, they say they just want to make Colombia a better place. But that's all a lie. It's a cover story and they hide behind it, and they use it to jusitfy their criminal activity. The FARC are not a revolutionary group, they are not a revolutionary group. They are terrorists…terrorists with a capital T…bad people.

Definitely no sign of Stockholm syndrome there.

So what’s next for Ingrid Betancourt…? As much as she must thank Uribe for enabling this rescue mission, she is unlikely to find him in much of a mood to listen to her conciliatory tone. He has the bit between his teeth with his hard-line approach, which over the last few months has delivered a whole host of impressive successes. Successes which have lead many commentators to talk of the eventual demise of FARC. Only time will tell...

The President's League Table

2008-07-02T01:25:00.005+01:00

Nothing beats the clarity of good old-fashioned list...

So here's an interesting one I stumbled across recently - by means of Greg Week's Latin American blog, 'Two Weeks Notice'. It lists the current popularity ratings amongst Latin American Presidents.

84% Álvaro Uribe, Colombia (3/08)

61% Felipe Calderón, Mexico (5/08)

55% Antonio Saca, El Salvador (5/08)

55% Evo Morales, Bolivia (5/08)

55% Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, Brazil (3/08)

54% Hugo Chávez, Venezuela (4/08)

53% Rafael Correa, Ecuador (6/08)

51% Martín Torrijos, Panama (4/08)

49% Álvaro Colom, Guatemala (3/08)

45% Tabaré Vázquez, Uruguay (3/08)

44% Oscar Arias, Costa Rica (4/08)

44% Michelle Bachelet, Chile (6/08)

38% Manuel Zelaya, Honduras (2/08)

34% Stephen Harper, Canada (3/08)

32% Alan García, Peru (6/08)

30% George W. Bush, United States (6/08)

26% Cristina Fernández, Argentina (5/08)

21% Daniel Ortega, Nicaragua (2/08)
5% Nicanor Duarte, Paraguay (3/08)

I'm not too sure as to how much we can read into this. I guess it's no surprise that Colombia's Uribe tops the list. I was chatting with a Colombian guy the other week, and having asked him whether he thought Uribe was good or bad for the country he responded, "he's neither good nor bad...he's AMAZING!" His effectiveness in tackling the FARC guerillas, keeping the economy relatively stable and taking head-on the likes of Chavez and Correa, no doubt playing a part in his popularity. Still I'm not to sure international human rights groups will be to keen in praising his presidency.

Other than that, the Presidents of the "New Left" (Chavez, Correa, Lula, Morales) all seem to be doing alright, though I'm sure they must be down from where they would have been this time last year. And then there's poor old Cristina Fernandez who really is making a dog's dinner out of the popularity she had inherited over from her husband, Nestor Kirchner.

Putting Those 1978 Ghosts to Bed

2008-07-01T14:12:00.010+01:00

Whilst the Spaniards were ending 44 years of hurt with their victory over Germany in the Euro 2008 final this past Sunday, a different kind of ‘hurt’ was being put to bed in Buenos Aires.

30 years had passed since the Argentine national team lifted their first ever World Cup trophy. It was a tournament they hosted and should have gone down as a glorified moment in Argentine folklore. However it remains forever blighted by the dark military dictatorship and the so-called “Dirty War” it inflicted upon its people. The way in which the regime purposefully used the staging of the World Cup as propaganda tool, à la Hitler’s 1936 Olympics, and as to distract a population’s worries about the continuous desaparecidos has cast a black shadow over what was at the time Argentina’s greatest ever sporting triumph. Moreover, though slight in comparison, the military have been accused of bribing the Peruvian national side to lose heavily to Argentina, when the Argentines needed at least a 4-0 victory to guarantee their place in the final (they beat Peru 6-0).

This Sunday ex-members of the World Cup winning team, human rights activists took part in a memorial match - "La otra final: el partido por la vida y los derechos humanos" - for the 30,000 Argentines who lost their lives during this dark chapter of Argentine history. Many of the ex-players had wanted to put to bed once and for all that they in someway had been used by the military regime. As young football players they had little idea of the horrors being perpetrated by their leaders and little understanding of how their success was being manipulated to make a population turn a blind eye towards the atrocities.

Perhaps most chilling of all is the stories of the imprisoned opponents in the military detention and torture that was situated only a short distance from the main stadium in Buenos Aires during the World Cup. Here prisoners told how, chained to their beds, they could hear their guards listening to the game on the radio and the crowds celebrate as the goals went in. The 1980 Nobel Peace Prize Winner, Adolfo Pérez Esquivel, who was imprisoned at the time recalls how

En la prisión, cuando ponían el partido en los altoparlantes, era muy contradictorio. Porque los ejecutores, aquellos que nos torturaban, y nosotros, las víctimas, gritábamos juntos '¡Gol de Argentina!'. Y sabemos que sacaban afuera a prisioneros cuando había distracciones por la Copa Mundial y les disparaban (source BBC Mundo "A 30 años de un triunfo empañado" 30/06/2008)

When they played a game over the speakers, it was very contradictory - because the executioners, those who tortured us, and us the victims both cried 'Goal Argentina!' And we know that they took prisoners out when there were distractions caused by the World Cup and shot them (source BBC News, "Football match evokes Dirty War", 30/06/2008)

Thankfully for Argentine and Argentine football only a few years would have to pass before the dictatorship crumbled and Maradona could restore national pride with the his glorious one-man show in the 1986 World Cup in Mexico.

CUBA: The Socialist vs. Capitalist debate

2008-06-25T14:42:00.004+01:00

In the past weeks and months people have been trying to work out how far exactly Raúl Castro has been willing to push through reforms. Since he officially took over from his older brother Fidel, certain parts of the economy have been relaxed as to allow Cubans to purchase a whole host of consumer goods along with other small economic liberalizing steps (see "More reforms in Cuba")

Anyway does all this account to the “death knell” of socialist Cuba as we know it and the emergence of a new capitalist state, or rather as rational steps to perfect Cuba’s statist economy. This is the debate that’s been played out in a number of opinion pieces I’ve stumbled across in the British Press of late.

Rory Carroll, “Cuban Workers to get bonuses for extra effort”, The Guardian, June 13, 2008

Dr. Helen Yaffe, “Cuba’s wage changes have nothing to do with a return to capitalism”, The Guardian, June 20, 2008

Marc Frank, “Cuba determined to perfect statist economy”, The Financial Times, June 23, 2008

Rory Carroll in his piece highlights the recent abandonment of Cuba’s egalitarian wage system - the idea that a taxi driver should in theory earn as much as say a doctor, or as Marx’s famous maxim goes, “from each according to his ability, to each according to his need.” In the future pay rewards will be based on productivity and efficiency – from each according to his ability to each according to his work - thus curbing the inherent inertia of the Cuban economy. By emphasising continual poverty on the island seeing the Cuban economy as moribund he hints at the dire need of some form rejuvenation of the economy through liberalisation; something he likes to call “perestroikita” in reference to the liberalizing reforms undertaken by Gorbachev in the USSR

Dr. Helen Yeffe is quick to rebuke the perceived notion that Cuba is somehow on the long but inevitable path towards full-flung capitalism. The idea that everyone in Cuba has been paid the same is a myth, with pay rewards and wages dependent on your skills having been in place for decades. She then takes to task the idea that the Cuban economy is in some form of dire straits, showing off various statistics that highlight the impressive growth the Cuban economy has witnessed in the last few years. Of course this is then followed by the age-old pro-Castro argument that stresses the country’s impressive health, education and equality levels as to counteract the poverty levels in Cuba. The new salary incentives have little to with rejuvenating the economy but more as a means to reduce their vulnerability to the global food price crisis.

Finally the Financial Times comes with its own interpretation of recent reforms. All the reforms come under the banner of what is being coined perfeccionamiento empresarial – perfecting the state company system.

Perfeccionamiento empresarial is based on adopting modern management and accounting practices, often gleaned from the study of private corporations, for state-run companies. It grants management more authority over day-to-day decisions and imposes more discipline on workers while also increasing their participation in decisions and incentives for labour.

What this means in practice is hard to glean, but as far as the FT is concerned the debate as to whether Cuba is eschewing socialism in favour of capitalism has been decided.

A debate fostered by Raúl Castro has for now been settled in favour of those who want to improve one of the world’s most statist economies – not dismantle it.

And why should they abandon in a single sweep the foundations of modern day economy. Especially when the FT confirms that the Cuban economy is in such a healthy state.

Foreign exchange earnings are relatively strong due to the export of medical and other professional services – mainly to Venezuela – as well as tourism, high nickel prices and soft Chinese loans.

However we may wish to coin the policy directions of the Cuban economy, and trumpet them as evidence of socialism or capitalism surely this must be secondary to realizing that there never needs to be a one-size-fits-all solution to everything. In reality it is of little importance whether Cuba clings onto socialism, incorporates capitalism or finds some other middle way; as long as it works. I don't know to be quite honest, I just find it increasingly unproducutve for people to always to pigeon-hole things, be it socialism vs capitalism, left-wing vs. right-wing, or other such false dichtomies. Latin America has been awash with the by-products of this, be it Guatemala under Arbenz, Chile under Allende, and now the rise of the 'new Left' throughout much of Latin America. Why waste blood (literally), sweat and tears over labelling such governments one way or the other?

Is Brazil Part of Latin America?

2008-06-25T13:24:00.009+01:00

There has never been any contestation that Brazil is somewhat unique amongst the assemblage of Latin American states:

It’s Portuguese heritage
It’s ability to remain united – rather than splinter into numerous squabbling territories, as happened with the Spanish empire
It’s sheer size – population, economy, territory is as large as that of all the other South American countries put together.

So the differences between Brazil and the rest of the Latin American nations are obvious. However, it would be impossible to see Brazil as anything else but an integral part of any study of Latin America? Well so we thought... Leslie Bethell of Oxford University gave a talk the other week at the Institute for the Study of the Americas entitled “Is Brazil part of Latin America?” Well he would say that given that he was director of the Centre for Brazilian Studies - when it is normally commonplace just to lump Brazil in under Latin America.

Simon Bolivar was supposed to be the great instigator for Latin American unity, However his grand vision had nothing to do with Latin American unity as we know it, but rather of a confederación hispanoamericana – a Hispanic confederation that excluded Brazil. Brazil was not Hispanic and seen as intrinsically different from the rest of the Americas:

It wasn’t a republic, but a monarchy
It still permitted slavery
It has closer ties with Europe, something the new Hispanic American republics were at pains to distance themselves from.

Not that Brazil really cared about not being part of this Hispanic American club. It’s Portuguese heritage meant that it was naturally imbued with a hostile attitude towards anything related to Spain. This along with a sense of superiority meant that Brazilians were quite happy to be excluded.

In the late 19th century, with the dreams of a unified Hispanic Americas long gone, the notion of Latin America did grow as an idea, especially amongst Latin American intellectuals. They sought to focus on the similarities across the Latin American continent as a counterweight to the increasing dominance and interventionism of the US and its of ides of American (North + South) unity through the a US-led Panamericansim.

However well up into the 20th century Brazil was still seen as a non-integral part of Latin America. In an era of fervent anti-Americanism in Latin America, Brazil persistently remained less critical of the US and was of the US’s more reliable allies. Furthermore Brazil continued to perceive itself unique and indeed superior from the rest of Latin America.

Arguably Leslie Bethall had indeed made a persuasive historical argument as to how Brazil had differentiated itself from the rest of Latin America. However he continued to argue that still today Brazil is markedly different from the rest of Latin America, is still perceived so by Brazilians themselves and that it ultimately deserves to be studied as a completely different entity in exclusion from Latin America. I think this was the point at which most people in the audience would have started to take issue with him.

The interconnectedness of Latin American countries – Brazil included – is plain to see. Brazil borders almost all South American nations, and in today’s world can’t not be influenced, culturally, economically, politically by the rest of Latin America and vice versa. Aside from a difference in language, there is no doubt in my mind, that Brazil is an integral part of Latin America. Yes there are many things which are unique to Brazil, and yes Brazilians will no doubt from time to time see themselves as unique and superior to the rest of the neighbours. But you need just to take a trip over the river Plate to realize that the Argentineans are just as capable, if not more so, in espousing a sense of difference and a superiority with the rest of the continent. Brazil’s leadership in MERCOSUR and the recently unveiled Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) only highlights its attempt to place itself, if not at the centre of Latin America, then at least South America – Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean already seem locked into the US sphere of dominance.

Critics may well turn around and say – and Leslie Bethall would be one of them – that Brazilian leadership is not much wanted amongst South American nations, who view these attempts of regional unity with Brazil at their helm as merely a means to help Brazil to propel itself onto the world stage…

This has been quote a long post…thank you if you’ve managed to get this far. I’ll finish with a few comments by former Brazilian President on this very issue - “Brazil: A Latin American Nation?” - that seem to underscore my point of view as well.

Despite differing colonial histories, languages and state institutions, Brazil does indeed share a relation with Latin America. […] Along with some cultural, geographical, and ideological traits, Brazil and other Latin American nations share a position on the “periphery” of the modern globalized world. […] We belong to Latin America […] We feel at ease in Latin America. (The Washington Institute for International Studies, 14/03/2007)

South American World Cup Qualification - 6th Round

2008-06-20T13:52:00.003+01:00

Whilst Brazil's former coach was getting knocked out of Euro 2008 with Portugal, his former side weren't making much progress back in South America. Brazil played out a dreary 0-0 draw against arch-rivals Argentina in the so-called clásico. A result that now leaves them in 5th place in the South American qualification table for the 2010 World Cup. Of course the Brazilian press were quick to pile the criticism on Brazil's coach Dunga

The Brazilian media were in no doubt as to who was responsible for the Canarinha's unsatisfactory showing. The harshest criticism came from Lance!, which ran with a cover featuring Dunga's head inside a noose and topped by the headline "Hung". "Brazil draw with Argentina as the fans vent their fury on coach - Zico now the popular choice," fumed the sports daily.O'Globo also registered its displeasure on its website. "Dunga gets the donkey treatment as off-key Brazil draw 0-0 with Argentina," ran the merciless headline. Publishing a photo of Ronaldinho in the stands at the Estadio Mineirao, the website added that the Barcelona man and Kaka were sorely missed, stating that "without them the future looks bleak". With Brazil's other stars having another off day, O'Globo also remarked on the warm applause Lionel Messi received when he was substituted.Running with a front page photo of a closely marked Adriano trapping the ball on his chest, Jornal do Brasil opted for a short but no less powerful headline: "270 minutes without a goal". The online version of the paper was just as critical: "Even with the Mineirao right behind them, Brazil were incapable of beating Argentina. To cap it all, the fans chanted 'Dunga out' as he made his way off the pitch. All in all, a sad goodbye for a coach who had stakedeverything on this game."Joining in the chorus of disapproval was Folha de Sao Paulo. "What a miserable clásico", it complained before highlighting the fans' displeasure: "The crowd whistled the team and demanded Dunga's sacking." (source: fifa.com)

Otherwise results of note included group leaders Paraguay losing 4-2 to Bolivia. Bottom spot in the group now belongs to Peru after being 6-0 thumping by Uruguay. And Chile have now displaced Brazil from the important 4th place spot - the top 4 teams qualify for the World Cup -with an exciting 3-2 away win to Venezuela.

Results:

Brazil vs Argentina: 0-0
Venezuela vs Chile: 2-3
Ecuador vs Colombia: 0-0
Uruguay vs Peru: 6-0
Bolivia vs Paraguay 4-2

Table:

Paraguay.....13 pts
Argentina....11 pts
Colombia.....10 pts
Chile.............10 pts
Brazil.............9 pts
Uruguay........8 pts
Venezuela.....7 pts
Ecuador.........5 pts
Bolivia............4 pts
Peru...............3 pts

Here is a good youtube video with all the highligts from this weeks' games. Disfrutenlo!

Latin America Pays for the Price for Fuel Subsidy

2008-06-17T15:00:00.004+01:00

Before sitting down in the library, to get on with my dissertation reading, I quickly paged through the Financial Times – one of the few, if only, British newspapers that tends to print interesting Latin American politics/economic articles. Today there was an interesting analysis piece about how Latin American governments are facing increasing pressures to cut fuel subsidies in the face of the ever-increasing oil prices. “Latin America pays the Price for Fuel Subsidy.”

Here in the U.K. a day doesn’t go by without further doom and gloom reports about the negative effects oil price increases are having on the average Brit, especially as they go to fill-up at the petrol station. A news story that is being played out across much of the world.

However in Latin America - as had been the case, up until recently, in Asia – governments have been subsidising petrol prices to tune of some ridiculously large billion-dollar sum. In this way Latin American motorists can still enjoy petrol prices a little as 5p a litre, whilst the rest of the world’s motorists have to dig deeper and deeper into their pockets to fill up their cars.

source: The Financial Times 17/06/2008

Why are they doing this? Perhaps Latin American governments are aware of the vital importance access to cheap petrol is for so many of their citizens. Any sudden increase in prices will surely effect these nations in more ominous ways than we in the West would be effected by such price changes. The FT rarely does economics with a ‘human face’ so these issues don’t get much of a mention in the FT piece. However what they do focus on are the possible consequences a sudden increase in petrol prices may have on inflation.

The reason for the lack of reform is pretty clear. Of all regions in the world, Latin America has most reason to fear the effects of inflation. During the 1970s, 80s and early 90s the pace and scale of price rises corroded the social fabric of many countries. Inflation rates of 100 per cent a year were commonplace, wrecking the ability of governments and businesses to plan for the future. As Guillermo Ortiz, the governor of the Mexican Central Bank, said: “Latin America has gone through high inflation for so long. Lowering the rate has been a cherished achievement.” In Chile, which imports almost all of its fuel needs and where annual inflation was running at 8.9 per cent in May – three times the central bank’s target – the new price subsidies will cut that rate by 0.3 percentage points, according to Angel Cabrera, a local consultant.

An interesting point.

However as the price for oil rises, the subsidies have to increase, and are subsequentlybecoming a conseiderable fiscal burden, which in itself may well curtail government spending in other important areas. The question is whether this outweighs the threat of higher inflation and the problems that would arise from that?

The FT ends by highlighting how cheap access to petrol does little to motivate a lower use of petrol in the long-run, something which mus be a desirable end in itself - be it to combat climate change, to free up some of Latin America’s clogged up innercity roads etc.

More seriously, the subsidies are distorting incentives. While higher oil prices have stimulated many developed countries to save energy and make more efficient use of resources, there has been no sign yet of this happening in Latin America. In Venezuela, for example, domestic petrol consumption is estimated to have doubled over the last five years to around 600,000 barrels a day. The low cost also creates incentives for smugglers, who sell petrol across the border in Colombia, where fuel is much more expensive.

South American World Cup Qualification - 5th Round

2008-06-16T11:23:00.005+01:00

So whilst the major European soccer power (minus England, I guess) slug it out for the European championship this summer, South American nations took another step in their long and arduous qualifying campaign for the 2010 World Cup. Up until now, after 4 games, the story had been of Paraguay leading the way with 10 points, and I guess of Brazil still not having started to fire on all cylinders, with only 2 wins from 4 games.

Well yesterday’s 5th round of qualifying matches emphasised those points with Paraguay stunning the Brazilians with a 2-0 victory in Asuncion. With plenty of games still to go and the first 4 teams guaranteed qualification there is no need to push the Brazilian panic button quite yet, but still…

Otherwise it’s a case of ‘as you were’ with all 3 of the ties ending in draws and Bolivia predictably losing to their age-old enemies Chile in La Paz – so much for the advantage of altitude. And also of note is Venezuela's progress. They're normally the team cemented to the bottom, given how Baseball probably overrides football as their national sport.

Bolivia vs. Chile 0-2
Argentina vs. Ecuador 1-1
Peru vs. Colombia 1-1
Uruguay vs. Venezuela 1-1
Paraguay vs. Brazil 2-0

_______________________

The table now looks a bit like this:

1. Paraguay 13 pts

2. Argentina 10 pts

3. Colombia 9 pts

4. Brazil 8 pts

5. Venzuela 7 pts

6. Chile 7 pts

7. Uruguay 5 pts

8. Ecuador 4 pts

9. Peru 3 pts

10. Bolivia 1 pt

________________

Below are a few youtube video highligths of the differetn games. The quailty isn't great but the audio commentary is as outrageously South American as one could hope for. Enjoy...

Paraguay vs. Brazil: 2-0

Argentina vs. Ecuador: 1-1

Bolivia vs. Chile: 0-2

Peru vs. Colombia: 1-1

Uruguay vs. Venezuela: 1-1

The next round of games take place later this week with the obvious highlight being the battle of the titans- Brazil vs Argentina. Paraguay should also be looking to consolidate thier lead at the top of the table with a relatively easy game against the Bolivians. But I'll make sure to let you all know how they got on.

Hugo Chavez and the 'U-Turn'

2008-06-09T15:38:00.008+01:00

So there I was in my previous post - "Good News, Bad News; from the Havana-Caracas Axis" -trying to paint Hugo Chavez into a less than agreeable corner. Well this weekend the news coming out of Caracas is that Chavez has made significant, positive U-turns on two contentious policy issues.

First off he has called upon FARC to end their struggle and release all their hostages. Quite a turn around from a few months ago when he was trying to get the rest of the international community to see FARC, not as terrorist organisation but as a legitimate army. This, of course, did little to help Venezuelan – Colombian relations.

Mr Chavez, whom Colombia has accused of financing the Farc, said they were "out of step" and their war was "history". In his weekly television and radio programme on Sunday, Mr Chavez urged the Farc's new leader, Alfonso Cano, to "let all these people go". "There are old folk, women, sick people, soldiers who have been prisoners in the mountain for 10 years," he added. The Venezuelan president said ending the rebellion could lead to a peace process between the rebels and the Colombian government. "The guerrilla war is history," he said. "At this moment in Latin America, an armed guerrilla movement is out of place." ('End Struggle, Chavez urges FARC', BBC News 09/06/2008)

Secondly Chavez has agreed to change the so-called ‘spy law’ that had proven so controversial.

He acknowledged "errors" in the newly enacted Law on Intelligence and Counterintelligence and will fix them to assure it fully complies with Venezuela's Constitution. He gave examples and cited Article 16 that cites the possibility of prison terms for persons not cooperating with intelligence services. It's a "mistake," said Chavez and "not a small (one)." The new intelligence services won't oblige anyone to inform on others. Doing so is "overstepping," and "I assume responsibility" for the error and will fix it. He continued: "Where we make mistakes, we must accept this and not defend the indefensible....I guarantee to the country, in Venezuela (this law will assault) no one! And no one will be obliged to say more than they want to say....(We) will never attack the freedom of Venezuelans, independently of their political positions. Liberty....is one of the slogans of our socialism." ("Chavez Revising, Not Revoking Venezuela's New Intelligence Law" - Baltimore Chronicle & Sentinel 09/06/2008)

This is all very well, but what I think is most worrying about Chavez’s running of Venezuela has more to do with his mismanagement of the Venezuelan economy. An economy which should be booming given the state of record-high oil prices. He may wish to redistribute wealth and create as much social justice as he want, but this is no good without the sound management of an economy that ist as inflation-hit and unattractive to investment as is the case right now.

With the country's most recent statistics showing consumer price rises of 29.1% in the 12 months to the end of March - the highest rate of increase in Latin America - now might not be the best time for inflation-busting pay deals. But on 1 May, Mr Chavez gave public sector workers an across-the-board salary increase of 30%. [...] GDP grew at a rate of 10.3% in both 2005 and 2006, but this slowed to 8.4% in 2007, while the respected survey organisation Consensus Economics forecasts that it will grow by just 5.6% in 2008. [...] Instead of investing in PDVSA to increase production, the government has used the firm as a cash cow, milking its funds to finance social programmes. [...] There is strong evidence that Mr Chavez's nationalisation programme, which has also extended to electricity, telecoms and the cement industry, is frightening off foreign investors. None of this appears to be doing ordinary Venezuelans any good. The lack of investment has left industry unable to keep up with growing consumer demand, while price controls imposed by Mr Chavez on about 400 basic goods have led to food shortages. ("Chavez in pre-election cash spree" BBC News 26/05/2008)

As the age-old saying goes, "it's about the economy stupid!" So whilst we can argue back and forth about his democratic credentials, his ability to do the right thing with regard to terrorist groups in neighbouring countries, his ability to maximize Venezuelan growth as a means to enhance sustainable development is what really mattes. And on that front he does seem to be someway off the mark for now.

For more on the issues I've mentioned, check out this piece in the International Herald Tribune, "Timely reversals show Chávez's political instincts"

Good News, Bad News - from the ‘Havana-Caracas Axis’

2008-06-07T14:09:00.006+01:00

Not long after Bush, Rumfelds et. al., creation of the so-called ‘Axis of Evil’ it became commonplace to come up with a whole host of other minor axes that were concocting various threats to US power. The ‘Havana – Caracas’ Axis is a case in point. An axis that joined the scheming socialist plans of Castro and Chavez, into some form of simmering Caribbean cocktail of menace. For more on this do read this paper, The Cuba-Venezuela Alliance: “Emancipatory neo-Bolivarismo or Totalitarian Expansion?

However, things aren’t as simplistic as this. Instead of a single narrative that highlights the increasing reality of this ‘Havana-Caracas Axis’ it seems that in recent months two slightly diverging narratives are taking place. One that exemplifies that spate of positive reforms undertaken by Raul Castro in Cuba. The other where Hugo Chavez remains demonized as the leader-in-chief of the ‘Bad Left’ taking the continent down a dark and well-trodden path towards inevitable failure. Read Obama’s recent view on Hugo Chavez’s Venezuela

No wonder, then, that demagogues like Hugo Chavez have stepped into this vacuum. His predictable yet perilous mix of anti-American rhetoric, authoritarian government, and checkbook diplomacy offers the same false promise as the tried and failed ideologies of the past. But the United States is so alienated from the rest of the Americas that this stale vision has gone unchallenged, and has even made inroads from Bolivia to Nicaragua (Remarks of Senator Obama: Renewing U.S. leadership in the Americas 23/05/08)

Every week now it seems as if yet another piece of Chavez legislation is branded about by the world press to exemplify his anti-democratic, anti-freedom credentials and entrench the ‘Bad Left’ narrative that Chavez personifies. This week for example it was all about,

a new intelligence law brought in by Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez has caused concern among rights groups who say it threatens civil liberties (BBC News 07/06/2008)

On the flip side, a week doesn’t seem to go by without a tale ofet more Cuban reforms that vary from allowing ordinary Cubans access to mobile phones to the implementation of gradual free-market policies. This week, news coming out of Havana highlights the change in attitude toward gay rights,

with reforms that could give Cuba the most liberal gay rights in Latin America, says the BBC's Michael Voss in Havana (BBC News 07/06/2008)

This cobbled together with the reaching out of Presidential hopeful, Obama, towards the Cuban regime, indicates a narrative that emphasizes how Fidel’s little brother Raul is far more likely to bring Cuba back into the international fold, and how bit by bit he is transforming the country for the better.

Castles in the Sand: A prediction of more economic turmoil in Argentina

2008-06-06T14:10:00.003+01:00

Here is a news article from the The Development Executive Group that popped into my inbox this morning. Unfortunately it predicts more economic turmoil for turmoil-ridden country. Headlines shouting out “Farming Crisis” have been staring me in the face from the Financial Times and The Economist alike, the last few weeks. Yet it’s with trepidation that I even begin to embark on understanding the complexities and , for some, the irrationality that seemingly forever embeds Argentine macroeconomic policies. But it has to be done…

But anyway here's a nice easy analogy for Argentine economics to get us going.

"Argentina is like a kid who makes a really good sand castle at the beach, takes
a lot of care in building it just right, then steps on it himself. Things have
been good recently. Now we have to put a question mark on everything."

-- Taxi driver Jose Luis Baldini, 60, voicing a bleak notion that has become conventional wisdom for many in Argentina here: Good times never seem to last. Today's Argentina is not gripped by crisis but rather by the fear of crisis, the Washington Post reports. Several strikes by farmers, furious over government policies, have sparked concerns about lasting damage to the economy. Many Argentines have been exchanging their pesos for dollars, forcing the government to dip into its surplus to keep the currency stable. Consumers, told that their government faces a shortage of natural gas, are bracing for blackouts. As recently as February, the government had been buying up vast quantities of dollars to keep the peso's value artificially low -- a strategy designed to boost exports and domestic investment. But after the farm conflict began, Argentines traded millions of pesos for dollars and forced the government to flip its strategy: It's now dipping into its USD 50 billion reserve fund to prop up the value of the peso, the Post reports. "The government right now is fighting the people who bring the dollars into this country, namely the farmers," said Alejandro Marino, 49, a lawyer in Buenos Aires. "Despite what the government is saying, there are clear signs that there will be a shortage of dollars here one day."

Global Development Briefing - Castles in the Sand

Me and My 'Mate'

2008-06-04T11:11:00.003+01:00

The first thing any Argentine ex-pat most do upon arrival in the new foreign homeland is seek out their nearest yerba mate supplier. Having spent the best part of year out in the Argentine hinterland, I couldn’t not bring back with me my own mate set along with a 4 kilos of the yerba. With great diligence and extreme rationing this was able to get me going through my first year away from the Argentina. However for the past many months, with my supply depleted, my mate has found itself lost & lonely in some forgotten corner of a kitchen shelf.

Admittedly my search for mate in London hasn’t been as earnest as it could have been. Surely there is a large enough Argentine ex-pat community in London to warrant some form of mate outlet? Well luck had it that whilst wandering the cobbled streets of Oxford, I was able to stumble upon a specialist tea & coffee store that sold yerba, albeit of the Brazilian variety.

So I probably paid an extortionate price - £2.75 for a small bag of 250g – but now I can feel that yerba caffeine kick which has gotten me through countless last-minute essay writing situations in the past. Coffee just doesn’t quite do it.

But if anyone does know of where to get cheap yerba in London, do drop me a line…

Photos - courtesy of Mikko Takkunen

Racism in Bolivia

2008-06-03T13:51:00.000+01:00

Anti-indigenous racism has become an increasingly evident subtext to the political divide that is gradually pulling Bolivia apart.

Last week in Sucre this boiled over on the night before Evo Morales’ visit to the city. Organized groups, antagonistic to Evo Morales and the MAS party started to provoke disturbances and challenge the police and the army. With Morales’ visit cancelled, the army and police forced off the streets and the organised gangs were able to vent their anger towards the groups of indigenous peasants who had travelled to Sucre to welcome the President.

For a full explanation of how the disturbances unfold it is worth reading this article: Bolivian Racism Runs Amok in Bolivia.

Or you can take a look at this video footage, though you have to fast forward ca. 1 min into the video before anything appears

Two More Bolivian Regions 'Back Autonomy'

2008-06-02T09:02:00.000+01:00

News Update from Bolivia.

This Sunday, the inevitable march towards heightened regional divide in Bolivia was cemented with yet two more regions in Bolivia – Beni and Pando – voting overwhelmingly to declare further autonomy from the central government.

Whilst local citizens took the streets in celebration, the central government tried - as in the Santa Cruz province a couple of weeks back – to call the election illegal and unconstitutional and somehow draw some grain of solace from the ‘high’ levels of absenteeism. As one government minister Alfredo Rada optimistically tried to put it, "en el departamento de Pando, podemos decir con toda claridad que este intento ilegal e inconstitucional de imponer estatutos ha sido firmemente rechazado por el pueblo pandino". And added, "el pueblo dijo autonomía SÍ pero estatutos NO".

In a few weeks it’ll be the turn of the Tarija department (the last of the so-called ‘Media Luna’ group) to go down this predictable electoral path in their own autonomy vote.

How in the world will Evo Morales and the central government ever be able to reconcile the yawning geographic divide that is driving this country apart? If you think the problems are bad now, I’m sure they could get a whole lot more conflictive if Evo Morales survives the recall referendum on his presidency (penciled in for August) and then pushes for the public referendum on his draft constitution. A constitution that was approved last year by his MAS party, but conveniently boycotted by the opposition politicians who are now behind this regional autonomy move.

Unfortunately along with this geographic divide, a more serious anti-indigenous racial divide continues to be unleashed. But more on this later…

Fidel Responds to Obama

2008-05-30T21:47:00.000+01:00

Naturally it didn’t take long for Fidel Castro to respond to Barack Obama’s recent policy outlines on Cuba (see previous posts: ‘Todos Somos Americanos’ or ‘Barack Obama on Cuba’). Unfortunately, or not, the response didn’t come in the form of his typical 2-hour long diatribes in front of the Cuban masses, but rather a measured critique in the form of his column – “Reflections by Comrade Fidel” – in the Daily Granma, the official newspaper of the Cuban Communist Party.

The title of the article, “The Empires’ Hypocritical Politics” leaves no room for misinterpretation of Fidel’s views on the US. However whilst such views have been on ‘repeat’ the last 50 years or so, it was interesting to read the few words of praise that fell Obama’s way. Here are a few excerpts:

I listened to his speech, as I did McCain’s and Bush’s. I feel no resentment towards him, for he is not responsible for the crimes perpetrated against Cuba and humanity. Were I to defend him, I would do his adversaries an enormous favor.

This [is a] man who is doubtless, from the social and human points of view, the most progressive candidate to the U.S. presidency.

I am not questioning Obama’s great intelligence, his debate skills or his work ethic. He is a talented orator and is ahead of his rivals in the electoral race. I feel sympathy for his wife and little girls, who accompany him and give him encouragement every Tuesday.

But of course they were the numerous responses to the varying criticisms Obama himself made of Cuba. Too many for me to note here, however I did find it interesting how Castro highlights other areas in the Americas where injustice is being carried out – environmental crises, the food crisis - and questions how Obama, despite all his good words and intentions would tackle them. He then goes on to give his own interpretation on the current stand-off and how despite this, Cuba has achieved so much with so little. He finally seems to keep open the idea of cooperation with the US by stating, “We have never subordinated cooperation with other countries to ideological requirements.”

Both Obama’s and Castro’s opinions are interesting, though I doubt it really tells us anything fundamental about what an Obama presidency might mean for US-Cuban relations. So many actors and interest groups have their fingers in the pie that it’s almost impossible to work out now whether all these groups’ interests will all align themselves favourably, come the next few years, to bring to an end this long-standing conflict.

To read his full column click here.

Personally I wish he would syndicate his columns to newspapers here. Whether or not you agree with the things he writes, his eloquent writing and oratory style is still as unique and insightful as you’ll here from any political leader.

Todos Somos Americanos

2008-05-29T07:26:00.000+01:00

“Ich bin ein Berliner”, was how John F. Kennedy in 1963, during the height of the Cold War, sought to reaffirm US support towards democratic West Germany shortly after the construction of the Berlin Wall.

Fast forward to 2008 and Presidential hopeful, Barack Obama, in a keynote speech on his proposed policies towards Latin America evoked a similar notion of solidarity (and use of a foreign language catchphrase…) by declaring: “¡Todos Somos Americanos!” (We are all Americans!)

Thankfully the situation vis-à-vis US-Latin American relations is hardly as problematic as US-USSR relations when Kennedy went to Berlin. However, Latin America has not only been a neglected continent under George Bush’s administration, but one in which a sense of US superiority and arrogance towards the region has left anti-Americanism throughout Latin America at its probably highest levels in a long time. This has facilitated, some would argue, the rise of certain leaders in the region who have gone out of their way to demonize the US, bypass any attempt to construct meaningful bilateral relations with the US, and consequently undermine US leadership in the region.

These were the issues that Barack Obama sought to address in his keynote speech, “Renewing US Leadership in the Americas” which he gave last week to the Cuban American National Foundation in Miami

If you have 30 minutes to kill here’s the speech in its entirety. Here also is a link to the transcript of the speech (Remarks of Senator Barack Obama: Renewing U.S. Leadership in the Americas). Here is a link to the official Barack Obama plan for Latin America (A New Partnership for the Americas)

Naturally the first half of the speech focuses on Cuba - he was giving the speech to an audience of Cuban-Americans. Cuba has been one of the most contentious policy issues in the Americas, and a policy area in which Obama has chosen a distinctively alternative path from that of John McCain. Whereas McCain has vowed to maintain the hard-line stand on Cuba, Obama has vowed to ease travel restriction and money remittances to the island and whilst not stating it explicitly, he has opened the door for future high-level talks with the Cuban government. That said his language was tough, resolute and unyielding in its criticism of the Castro dictatorship. Cuban-American votes are important as any demographic group for his Presidential campaign and thus any evidence of his willingness to engage with Cuba has to be countered by an ability to show that he will forcefully stand-up and demand change from the Castro regime. It’s a hard conundrum to fix, and undoubtedly one that will depend as much on the Castro brothers’ perception of Obama as Cuban-Americans willingness to back down and negotiate with Cuba.

More tough words were aimed at Chavez and those who may choose to take their countries down a similar path (i.e. Morales and Ortega). The rebuilding of relationships with Chavez depends, again, on how Chavez and the likes choose to view Obama. Chavez’s qualms are supposedly solely with George Bush, not with the US, so it remains to be seen how Chavez would respond to a leader who wishes to reassert US leadership in the region.

In general the speech was an obvious hark back to “Good Neighbour” policies of the 1930s and 40s or the Alliance for Progress programme of the early 1960s. Both Democratic Party initiatives that focused the importance on a stable and friendly Latin America, and a cordial relationship based on solidarity and an equal standing amongst all partners. Hence the slogan to underline Obama’s speech: “¡Todos Somos Americanos!”

Latin American politicians may benefit politically from their imbuing anti-American rhetoric, but no Latin American country can gain economically or politically from maintaining such an unwavering anti-American attitude. The realities of the American economic and political might, the historical and cultural ties that continue to link North and South are just too strong to wish away. Most Latin American politicians know this only too well and will undoubtedly be hoping that an Obama presidency will allow them the leverage, amongst their own electorates, to promote healthy relations with the US.

With all this said and done I do still find it hard to believe that US foreign policy toward Latin America is unlikely to be at the top of eitherPresidential candidate’s foreign policy priorities. The issues of Cuba, Haiti, Mexican immigrants, and Colombian narcotics will undoubtedly remain the main areas of engagement with Latin America.

So how willing is the US ready to convert good words into good deeds and help cast off the chains of poverty? These were pledges John F. Kennedy made almost 50 years ago in his Alliance for Progress, but which today still remain elusive in US relations toward Latin America. Will Obama really be able to fulfil the goals which so many US Presidents have promised but failed to live up to?

Venezuelan Flags on London Buses

2008-05-28T09:21:00.000+01:00

I have always found it slightly curious to see the Venezuelan flag plastered on the back of some of London’s red double-decker buses.

Travelling through Latin America you become accustomed to seeing little EU or Japanese flags dotted here, there and everywhere, announcing their financial support for the next important humanitarian project. But why should an already impoverished nation be making such an effort to help one of the richest cities in the world?

Well by means of subsidised Venezuelan oil some of the poorest people of London have been able to benefit from reduced bus fares. But what does Venezuela, or rather Hugo Chavez, get out of this? Well aside from the little Venezuelan sticker on the back of buses I guess it was no more than a slap in the face against Tony Blair, one of Chavez’s more vocal critics abroad. In the same essence Chavez has been providing cheap heating oil to poor inner-city neighbourhoods in the US.

I shouldn’t be so cynical, should I? This is how the deal was officially meant to look like:
“This was a mutually beneficial agreement through which Venezuela had assisted 80,000 of the poorest people in London who receive half price bus and tram fares as a result of a reduction in the price of fuel for London's bus fleet. In return, London provided Venezuela with specialist technical expertise and assistance in areas such as transport, town planning and protection of the environment and other issues related to developing a modern world city. The main beneficiaries of this technical aid would have been the poorest residents of Caracas”(Venezuela Information Centre 27/05/08)

However with the election of a new – conservative - London mayor, Boris Johnson, the deal has been scrapped. Despite how much I would have liked to have believed the official rhetoric, that there was some altruistic motive behind Chavez’s donation to the disadvantaged people of London, and that the world could indeed have benefited from such examples of North-South collaboration, it’s probably makes sense to end this deal. Surely the Venezuelan people are in more need of subsidized oil than us here in London. And Chavez really shouldn’t be playing such cheap political games with the very assets that are needed to develop Venezuela.

Still I have to say I’ll miss seeing those little Venezuelan flags on our buses here. They always bring a wry smile to my face with the realization that ripple effects of change in Latin America have is some strange and peculiar way reached us here in London.

The Fighting Cholitas

2008-05-27T08:33:00.001+01:00

This isn't really a news article, but here it is nevertheless.

After from the initial comic value of it all, I couldn't help but think that it was slightly disturbing to see cholitas doing battle in the wrestling ring.... Surely there is enough violence going on Bolivia, without the cholitas getting in on the act.

Anyway here's a youtube video of the 'spectacle'. Or for a more informed report, try this BBC MUNDO video - Cholitas son diosas del ring en Bolivia

Reflections on a Forgotten Continet

2008-05-24T18:44:00.000+01:00

Michael Reid the author of “Reflections on a Forgotten Continent” passed by our Institute the other day to give an informal talk on his book. A book that tries to go beyond the headlines (e.g. Chavez’s fiery rhetoric, the home of the illicit drug trade etc.) and paint a picture of Latin America that is far rosier than would otherwise be imagined.

Latin America is, as his title suggests, the “Forgotten Continent”. Unable to attract the same levels of attention as other region of the world, it persistently slips under our - not as poor as Africa, not as tumultuous and oil-rich as the Middle East nor home to booming economies such as India and China. What Michael Reid wants to point out is that Latin America deserves much greater attention. It’s a crucial laboratory for capitalist democracies, the success of which is important for the consolidation of other capitalist democracies around the world.

Despite all the doom and gloom that seems to come out of Latin America over the last 25 years - debt crises, economic stagnation, growing inequality, the return of the populist demagogue – Latin America is finding its feet. Democracy is becoming increasingly consolidated and many of the major nations of the region (Chile, Brazil and Mexico) are going through periods of substantial economic growth. And this growth is supposedly being used to tackle the immense levels of inequality.

I couldn’t help but feel as if he was unduly optimistic about the region – something he acknowledges. Perhaps he was too comfortable, for my liking, to fall into line with the post-Washington consensus view of the region. i.e. that the initial Washington Consensus reforms were implemented badly, or not at all, and should be supplemented with more institutional reform and token social justice measures. Yes, many Latin American countries are improving, but is this on the basis of the post-Washington consensus reforms, or merely because the world economy is booming. What happens when we reach the top of the current economic business cycle and economies start going slightly pear-shaped? Have the likes of Brazil and Mexico done enough to better social welfare and the likes so that when the tough times come, the tough don’t cut and run and leave the poor to bear the brunt of a crisis (as happened with the debt crisis).

Anyway that’s me just being overly pessimistic. Latin America has been on the up in the recent years, but my structuralist/dependency theory leanings has me worrying that the global economy will always eventually undermine the efforts of Latin American nations to seek out a better lot for themselves in the world economic order.

His book is probably a good read for anyone interested, but not overly familiar with Latin America. For those who already know the ins and outs of present day in Latin America it probably won’t shed too much light on the region. It’s possibly overly broad and simplistic given that it wants to cover so many issues, in so many countries, within the boundaries of a single book.

But who am I to say? Here’s a glowing review of the book from the New York Times.

Barack Obama on Cuba

2008-05-23T04:06:00.000+01:00

It’s quite often the case in US politics that Presidential contenders find themselves having to tone-down attitudes on certain policy areas in the game of capturing specific demographic segments of the electorate.

Such has been the importance of capturing the ‘Cuban vote’ in Florida and appeasing the influential Cuban lobby in Washington that any serious debate of normalizing relations with Cuba has become impossible from the outset.

“Change We Can Believe In” is the slogan Barack Obama’s campaign is forcefully promoting. Well, given the realities of US domestic politics, the importance of special interests and the need to gain favour with specific demographic groups it would be natural to be slightly sceptical as to how much change Obama really can bring about vis-à-vis Cuba. Particularly when policy toward Cuba has remained virtually unchanged and set-in-stone for the last 50 years.

Thankfully, from what I can gather from this CNN interview (see below) Obama really does want to readdress to Cuban debate and more importantly move towards some form of normalisation of relations.

Risky business? Well perhaps not. Obviously the intransigent policy of the 50 years has hardly been a resounding success. Raul Castro, unlike Fidel, has it seems a more pragmatic view on the world and will probably be more inclined to want to court Obama’s proposals. And then there is the make-up of Cuban immigrants in Florida. No longer are they solely 1st generation immigrants who hold Castro and his anti-democratic regime in the highest disdain, but 2nd and 3rd generation Cuban exiles, who perhaps don’t bare the same grudge against Castro. They too may feel inclined to question the irrationality of the long-standing and uncompromisingly strict measures that ban or severely curtail all the connections that bind other Latin American Diasporas with their homeland.

Anyway, here is a snippet of a CNN interview with Obama, so you can see for yourselves how he wishes to frame the Cuba question. If you stick to the end he also goes onto stake out his position on Iran which is also quite interesting…and refreshing.

Brazilian Democracy under Lula and the Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT)

2008-05-22T11:34:00.000+01:00

With exams out of the way it’s great to be able have the time to finally attend some of the seminars that my Institute put on. (Events at the Institute of the Americas)

Yesterday saw David Samuels, a professor from the University of Minnesota, give a talk on the state of Brazilian democracy under President Lula and the ruling Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT).

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, popularly known as Lula, successfully ran for President in 2002 – this was his 4th attempt - and was re-elected again in 2006. The fact that a boisterous, and a once imprisoned trade union leader from a humble background could rise to become the President of Brazil is nothing short of remarkable given the elitist domain that is Brazilian national politics. The symbolism of this ‘rags to riches’ tale will undoubtedly have a lasting effect on Brazilian democracy and across the region (Evo Morales’ rise to the Presidential palace in Bolivia has followed a somewhat similar route).

So Lula and the PT entered office with 3 basic principles that were meant to reformulate and transform Brazilian democracy:
· Popular Participation
· An inversion of governmental priorities (i.e. an agenda that focuses on social justice)
· Ethical governance (i.e. and end to corruption)

However as David Samuels was at pains to stress, Lula has neither transformed Brazilian democracy, nor undertaken the structural reforms that he and the PT had been promising whilst they were in opposition.

With regards to fighting social injustice, Lula may well have introduced the very successful and innovative Bolsa Familia programme (here’s a link that tells you what it is all about) but there has yet to be any implementation of major universalistic social reform programmes a la Chavismo. Perhaps he hasn’t needed to given the benefits the Brazilian economy is reaping from the expansion of the global economy. As the neo-liberal ethos goes, perhaps wealth really is trickling down in Brazil.

David Samuels spent most of his time however, detailing how the Lula government has been marred by corruption and has put paid to the belief that Lula and the PT was ever serious about ethical governance. I don’t want to bore anyone with the details but there have been loads. But hey this is South America isn’t it? Don’t we come to expect this type of thing? Well it seems as if the Brazilian electorate kind of think that way. Despite all the corruption that marred the PT’s first term in office, Lula remains as popular as ever – the Teflon President per excellence.

Many people viewed Lula and the PT with rose-tinted glasses before they entered power. Much of the romanticism has been lost. However as long as Brazil’s economy surges forward, as long as they can remain branded as part of ‘the Good Left’ internationally, it seems that the Lula and the PT will remain in office for quite some time.

Unfortunately this has come at the cost of the admirably high standards the PT had promised to bring with it into Brazilian Democracy.

The PT didn’t change the political system, the system changed the PT.

Chávez Tightens Grip on Venezuela Economy

2008-05-19T15:12:00.000+01:00

Here's another interesting account of what the Venezuelan economy under Chavez and his socialist experiment looks like at the moment (Chavez tighthens grip on Venezuela economy).

The present situation isn't looking to good with food shortages and an ever-present high inflation rate hurting the people Chavez was meant to help in the first place.

Naturally Chavez, not one to back-track, is continuing his socialist experiment with a yet a new wave of takeovers of private companies in whole range of sectors. Some would argue that he is merely reversing some of the privatisation that took place in the 'dark neoliberal ages' of the 1990s, and that the Venezuelan economy is still made up of a healthy mixture of both state- and privately-owned companies.

However desirable nationalisation may be - given your ideological stance - that fact is that foreign investment is running away from Venezuela. What's the point of investing in a country when a few years down the line you might find government officials at your factory gate with a piece of paper (signed by Chavez) that your assets now belong to the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. And despite the government offering compensation, these are often far less than what would be deemed acceptable.

To bridge this investor gap, Chavez is seeking out joint ventures with the likes of Cuba and Iran. As much as I disagree with US paranoid-driven stance towards these countries, you're honestly not making life much easier for yourself when you specifically go out of your way to befriend Washington's arch enemies. And it's not like Cuba and Iran are the economic power houses of the world either.

Otherwise the article list a whole list of policy measures that signify the increased entrenchment Chavez.

Question remains: is there going to be a peaceful conclusion to all this?

More Political Shenanigans in Bolivia (where else?)

2008-05-10T16:47:00.000+01:00

Economic development is hard enough to achieve in Bolivia without the persistent destabilising forces that constantly undermine the President-of-the-day's attempt to steer the country down some sort of sustainable developmental path.

The recent political shenanigans in Bolivia only serve to underscore the perpetual political instability the country has had to deal with and how it's seriously destabilizing for the country in the long-run.

After last week's autonomy vote in Santa Cruz, Bolivia's President, Evo Morales, is seeking to tackle his opponents head-on in a nationwide referendum on his Presidency. I struggle to see what good this is going to do. Win-or-lose, this referendum is bound to cause yet more division throughout the country. It will further set in stone the gradual partition of the country along the geographic East and West divide, and perhaps more worryingly accentuate the increasing racial divide.

Morales's argument is, "if we politicians can't agree, it's best that the population decide our destiny."

I haven't followed Bolivian politics closely enough to comment objectively on whether Morales, his populist, and at times misguided nationalistic policies, and indigenista appeal are inherently the cause of this widening divide or whether this division is the natural knee-jerk reaction of the Bolivian elites (now increasingly settled in the Eastern provinces) given the inroads made into their long-held privileges.

Either way, the up shoot of all this can hardly be good for the long-term development of Bolivia. At least the country still remains determined to stick to democratic principles to sort out their differences.

Bolivia in the News

2008-05-05T02:01:00.000+01:00

It's all kicking off in Bolivia this week...

The Socialist/Nationalist credentials of the Morales government were further enhanced this week when they announced that they were taking over the country's majour telecommunications company along with a bunch of energy companies. Of course this was timed for the May Day celebrations. Given the rise in food prices, continuing inflation worries and the well documented autonomy aspirations of the gas-rich Eastern provinces, Morales must have been feeling quite hot under the collar. Things have definitely not been going to well for him of late.

Today's move towards autonomy in the Santa Cruz has been a long time in the making and will hardly help any move towards reconciliation between the 'poor' Western and 'rich' Eastern provinces. I may be biased - having lived in La Paz and genuinely wanting Evo Morales to succeed in his commitment to readdress centuries of discrimination toward the indigenous people - but as long as the Santa Cruz autonomy movement is founded upon a desire to reap the rewards of the gas fields for themselves I can't see them gaining much ground. Their case is further weakened by the inherent racial undertones that underlie much of the anti-Morales sentiment. The belief that he is merely a puppet of Chavez is also a weak one given how the MAS movement has been in force long before Chavez came to power.

Still it's been almost 3 years since I've been in Bolivia, so who am I to say what is really going on over there.

Venezuela - An Empty Revolution?

2008-05-04T01:35:00.000+01:00

Criticisms of Hugo Chavez, his authoritarian tendencies and mishandling of the economy, are numerous. Unfortunately many seem to be imbued with an inherent anti-Chavismo that blinds such commentators from any sound judgement based from an initial point of neutrality. Perhaps much in the same way Leftist criticisms of George Bush often stem from an unwavering contempt for the man instead of a detailed understanding of his policy failures.

Whilst reading for my ‘Economics of Latin America’ exam I stumbled across this article in Foreign Affairs by Venezuelan economist Francisco Rodríguex, ‘An Empty Revolution’. A nuanced critique of Chavez’s economic record founded upon a clear understanding of the macroeconomics of populism. And all from someone who actually was within the Chavez government from 2000-2004.

Here is a summary of his findings:

“Even critics of Hugo Chávez tend to concede that he has made helping the poor his top priority. But in fact, Chávez's government has not done any more to fight poverty than past Venezuelan governments, and his much-heralded social programs have had little effect. A close look at the evidence reveals just how much Chávez's "revolution" has hurt Venezuela's economy -- and that the poor are hurting most of all.”

I personally find quite enlightening his ability to frame his argument with a full appreciation for all the positive news that has come out of Venezuela with regard to the perceived poverty reductions, and how many (myself included at times) on the Left in the West try to turn a blind eye to some of the less than positive news that comes out of Venezuela.

”But perhaps an even more important reason for this success is the willingness of intellectuals and politicians in developed countries to buy into a story according to which the dilemmas of Latin American development are explained by the exploitation of the poor masses by wealthy privileged elites. The story of Chávez as a social revolutionary finally redressing the injustices created by centuries of oppression fits nicely into traditional stereotypes of the region, reinforcing the view that Latin American underdevelopment is due to the vices of its predatory governing classes. Once one adopts this view, it is easy to forget about fashioning policy initiatives that could actually help Latin America grow, such as ending the agricultural subsidies that depress the prices of the region's exports or significantly increasing the economic aid given to countries undertaking serious efforts to combat poverty.”

The Pink Tide Continues - in Paraguay

2008-04-25T11:46:00.000+01:00

Whilst the future US presidential election campaign will yet again paint US states in shades of either blue or red, head south and you will see a distinct shade of pink - 'socialism light - slowly covering the Latin American continent. Chile, Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Bolivia, Ecuador, Venezuela are all currently led by left-of-centre presidents. This week it is now possible to add Paraguay to the list. Former bishop Fernando Lugo and his leftist alliance won a resounding victory in presidential elections in Paraguay, dealing a crushing blow to the world’s longest ruling party and ushering in a new era, after 61 years of one-party government.

Commentators have sought to divide this movement into a 'good Left' (Lula's Brazil, and Bachelet's Chile) and a bad left (Chazez's Venezuela and Morales' Bolivia). For a detailed account of this debate read Jorge Castenada's "Latin America's Left Turn". That this divide has real relevance in Latin America is obvious when Fernando Lugo quickly sought to play down comparisons with the likes of Chavez and Morales. This was in no doubt in a need to calm any future investors in the country. Something Paraguay is in need of, if it is to transform its development from an agricultural-export model to an agricultural-industrial model.

To attract investors he's announced that he would offer them free energy from the huge energy reserves Paraguay has access to from the Itaipú hydroelectric dam situated on the Brazilian-Paraguayan. Given the current commodity boom Fernando Lugo will probably looking to Paraguay substantial soya produce and trying to put in place industries that add value to these exports by means of processing the soya into pellets and oil.

Tragedy in the Andes

2008-04-14T10:13:00.000+01:00

The Sunday press here in the UK have all been leading with the tragic news of five young Britons who were killed in a horrific bus crash in Ecuador. Five young gap-year students all on the so-called 'trip of a lifetime'.

It is quite stereotypical to paint Latin America as some dark continent with unknown dangers at every turn. It some ways it's true and I for one am surprised as to how my own parents were seemingly so calm in letting head off into the Latin American hinterland at the mere age of 17.

But what must the parents of those 5 young Britons being going through right now? The morning phone-in on BBC Radio 5 Live this morning followed up on the tragedy talking and it seems this particular has incident has touched upon a particular nerve. How meaningless for such young people to die in such a meaningless way.

Yes there are inherent dangers to travelling in Latin America. Thankfully I've 'only' experienced a single mugging (La Boca, Buenos Aires) plus a series of pick-pocket episodes. Honestly though it's travelling on the roads that is the single most dangerous thing anyone can do whilst traversing the Latin American continent. Dodgy buses, overtired/intoxicated drivers, bad roads, perilous mountain tracks and a general reckless attitude to driving all make road accidents probably the number one cause of accidental deaths.

My Bolivian host-Dad once gave me a sound piece of advice when taking buses. Always take a seat on the right-hand side of the bus and preferably as far back in the bus as possible. Bus collisions almost always affect those at the front and those situated on the left-hand side (i.e. the side facing the traffic). Look at the graphic images of the bus crash in Ecuador and you'll see his point.

More Reforms in Cuba

2008-04-12T14:38:00.000+01:00

It really does seem as if Fidel Castro's Cuban Revolution is more likely to go out with a whimper rather than a bang. Since Raul Castro officially took over as President he has set in motion a number of reforms that may in future may lead Cuba down a path that seemed almost impossible when under the helm of Fidel.

Simple market principals are creeping up here and there. Most recently such measures as the ability for state workers to own their homes and pass them on to their children and wage limits being removed so as to allow more incentives.

Not so long ago the bans on purchasing electrical goods such as DVD players, mobile phones and microwave ovens were lifted. Not that I can see how the ability to purchase a microwave oven in the past could have in anyway undermined the Cuban Revolution and brought into danger.

Officially this step-by-step relaxing of the strict social economy is seen as a way to improve Cuban Socialism and by no means as an opening of the floodgates to full-flung ferocity of capitalism.

Despite these reforms supposedly being initiated by Fidel himself, Fidel has criticised what he terms people who worship selfishness. Referring to a report on wealth disparities in Romania - a former Communist country - he warns of the dangers of easy access to consumer goods.

Cuba's aid programme in Bolivia

2008-03-01T15:25:00.000Z

With regard to Cuba, it seems that no matter whatever the debate of the day may be about, its defenders always seems to respond by highlighting the country's phenomenal health and education indicators. As much as those achievements must be applauded, it can at times become tiresome to hear proponents of Castro's regime use those achievements as a way to deflect any form of reasoned criticism. And whatever noble ideals the Cuban Revolution may have based on it would definitely be fair to say that they have over the decades off the rails, with or without US continued embargo and antoganism

That said with the rise of the Castro-Chavez Bolivarain axis (axis of evil or axis of hope?), the creation of ALBA as an alternative cooperation organisation, Cuba has again found a way to promote its astonsihing health and education policies. And stories like this - Cuba's aid programme in Bolivia -, about how Cuban doctors, bankrolled by Venezualan oil profits are doing wonders for the poor of Bolivia, only reaffirms that whilst so many may wish to see the end of the Castro regime, acts of solidarity amongst Latin American countries may be dearly missed.

What Would Obama do for Latin America?

2008-02-28T19:34:00.000Z

Unfortunately I've been so caught up in the US primary season of late, that my daily browsing of Latin American news topics online has been undone by reading countless Obama vs. Clinton news stories. Hopefully the good people of Texas and Ohio will now put us out our misery and make sure that the dynastic politics of the Bush/Clinton rule of the White House can finally come to an end. Whilst I don't think I'm still any clearer as to whether Obama really will bring about the change that he and his supporters go on about (and am I the only one to think that his "Yes We Can" theme tune riff is a rip off our very own Bob The Builder "Can we fix it? Yes We Can!" theme song?).

Could Obama really fix the mess the US finds itself it?? Well with regard to US-Latin American relations one can only hope that he really does learn from the George Bush's mistakes. There are those that have lamented US disregard toward Latin America in favour of the Middle East and the more pressing issues of terrorism and fighting wars here and there. But perhaps with the US taking its eye off Latin America has given Latin American governments the breathing space they've needed to etch out their own way. Perhaps it is no coincidence that it had been George Bush that the 'New Left' governments have risen to power and been so successful in promoting Latin American autonomy. That said Latin America can not detach itself from the US, it has never been able to and it never will, so therefore any US administration that chooses to reconstitute their foreign policy priorities by focusing on Latin Americas rather than other far-flung corners of the world can only be a good thing for Latin America. Well that is if the Administration in power at the time is one that treats Latin America as an equal partner rahter than some subregion full of wild, unruly Latinos as many Presidents have done before (think Nixon & Reagan).

So returning to the possible idea of an Obama presidency how would he treat Latin America? There is some mileage in the criticisms posted by his opponents that his campaign is more about rhetoric than actual policy, so it still isn't clear to me what he might do in office. Here is a US article a did come across that points out how a democratic presidency would be far more beneficial for Latin America than say a Republican one. Though with regard to trade matters this may not be the case. Obama: Pluses, minuses on Latin America issues. Question is how would he solve a problem like Chavez and Castro, or perhaps more interestingly what would they do without resource to their persistent anti-Bush rhetoric.

2008-01-17T18:39:00.000Z

Been quite absent of late. Blame it on my extended Christmas holidays and travels to Denmark and Israel.

Still it's been a few weeke since I last looked on the South American news pages back in late December. Nothing too noteworthy seems to have happened; no President has been toppled, no economy has crashed, and mother nature has seemingly spared the continent from any majour natural disaster. Most noteworthy was perhaps the continuation of the kidnapping dilemma in Colombia and Hugo Chavez's efforts to portray himself as a hostage broker. A couple of hostage were eventually freed (whilst thousands still remained entrapped out in the Colombian hinterland) and the spat between Chavez and Colombian President Uribe continues. So in reality all is as it always has been.

Perhaps on a more interesting note (though far more trivial), what is it about these new rumours in the Venezuelan press about Chavez and his romantic going-ons with model Naomi Campbell? Anything Nikolas Sarkozy can do, Hugo Chavez can obviously do better. ¿Están liados Chávez y Naomi Campbell?

Anyway as much as it would be interesting to right my next essays on the romantic affairs of Latin American Presidents, I'm going have to settle for EU-Latin American relations and another one on the Post-Washington Consensus (i.e what has come after the death of neo-liberal economics). Furthermore I can add that I'll be spending my summer wrapped up in the issues surrounding the nationalisation of gas in Bolivia, as that it was my dissertation topic looks must likely as being. Ahh....the fun that awaits.

Hopefully next time round I'll be able to write something slightly more substantial.

Soda Stereo - Me verás volver

2007-12-23T21:51:00.000Z

For whatever reason 2007 turned out to be a year that saw countless bands of yesteryear reunite. Led Zeppelin, The Police, The Verve, Spice Girls and numerous others for sure. Nothing to make the blood boil in my musical books.

On the other side of the Atlantic, and south of the Rio Grande the Latin music business had also caught the big-band reuniting bug. What's more it was my #1 Latin rock outfit, Argentine Soda Stereo, that decided to bring themselves together and set out on an extsensive continent-wide tour. Unfortunately, unlike all those wealthy Led Zeppelin fans who seemed to jet into London from all 4 corners of the world the other week for their one-off gig, jetting out to Buenos Aires was unfortunately beyond my limited means. Instead I spent much of yesterday, the day of their final gig in el Estadio River Plate in Buenos Aires, with my mp3 player shuffling out tunes from all the various Soda albums I've managed to get hold over the years.

It's almost 10 years to the day that the went out with a bang on their "El Ultimo Concieto" tour of Latin America, and shockingly almost 10 years now since I stumbled upon an MTV video from those concerts of their hit-song "La Musica Ligera". Given that my entire CD collection to that point was made up of English language albums, it was definitely a minor momentous moment to head up to my local CD store in La Paz and leave with my first ever Rock en Españ ol CD, Soda Stereo's "El Ultimo Concierto". Who would have known, good decent rock does exist in other languages. Now it was just a matter of time before a plethora of other surprisingly good Latin Rock acts would come my way: Lucybell, Cafe Tacuba, La Ley, Cuentos Borgeanos, Attaque 77, Babasonicos, to just name but a few.

Still Soda Stereo tops the lot and it's good to see their popularity across Latin America is a high as ever, with countless record-breaking stadium concerts to their name in almost the countries they've passed through the last couple of months. Unfortunately it'll be futile to expect that they'll hop across the pond and perform here in London despite the ever-increasing ex-pat Latino community here. Nevertheless at least I can take heart from the fact that their lead singer, Gustavo Cerati, ventured here for a solo gig last year which was almost as good as it gets.

So being the end of the year and the season of end of year top-10 lists, I leave you with my own personal top-10 list of favourite Soda hits:

En la ciudad de la furia
Té para 3
Toma la ruta
Nada personal
Tratame Suavemente
Profugos
Planeador
Cuando Pase el Temblor
Ella usó mi cabeza como un revólver
Angel Eléctrico

The Unifying Powers of Football?

2007-12-20T20:46:00.000Z

It's good to know that despite the recent dire political wranglings in Bolivia that only a matter of days needed to pass before Boliva's other main passion was back to dominate the newspaper front pages. I had gone on to the website of El Diario (Bolivia's oldest and probably most well respected daily newspaper) fully expecting to see large images of more conflictual demonstations or some photo of Evo Morales along wiht his latest tirade of accusations aginst that rebellious lot in the conrty's gas-rich Eastern provinces.

But no, instead the front page was devoted to the news that all Bolivians can rejoice (yes even those of the East) in the news that the Latin American football confederation, CONMEBOL, has refused to follow initial FIFA guidelines by allowing all international games to be played at altitude. This means Bolivia will be allowed the significant of advantage of playing all their home games at the dizzy heights of 3637 meters above sea-level. But in all honesty I don't think have any realistic chance of qualifying for the forthcoming World Cup in South Africa in 2010. Their latest defeat to the minnows of Venezueala proving that they're hardly ever going to world-beaters. Furthermore other domestic temas in Bolivia, ie those from Oruro and Potosi, will also get to play their home games of the Copa Libertadores in their respective high-altitude stadiums. Yes the Eastern lowlands may have all the gas, but when it comes to fútbol the highlanders are forever dominat.

Still it was nice to see that despite all the differences in the country there are still a few things like football that still have the capability of uniting the country. Or is itjust evidence that I obviously haven't been in Bolivia the last few years and that I have no real grasp nor understanding ofthe ever-deepening rifts that have seemingly split the country in two since the election of Evo Morales.

Another President in the Dock

2007-12-13T14:09:00.000Z

Turn the clock back some 20 years ago and much of Latin America was a murky world of dictatorial, authoritarian regimes where human rights abuses were common place. Military regimes had come to power under the belief that they were legitimately holding back the spread of Communism and the social revolutions that were supposedly threatening to overrun the region.

In Latin American economics we talk of the 1980s as the ‘lost decade’ where economic growth stagnated or went backwards. Along those same lines the late 1970s and much of the 1980s can be looked upon as the decade of the desaparecidos (the ones who disappeared). The hundreds of thousands who literally disappeared in the ‘dirty wars’ fought by military governments against those guerrillas and left-leaning movements that opposed them.

One by one though, many of those political leaders who stood at the forefront of these dirty wars are being brought before national courts and sentenced. The Southern Cone countries of Chile, Uruguay, and most notably Argentina have been, and continue to be, at the forefront of confronting their murky pasts. These weeks though the attention has switched to Peru where its former head of state, Alberto Fujimori, has been put on trial for the supposed massacres he ordered at the height of the war against Sendero Luminoso (The Shining Path) in the early 1990s.

There are some notably differences that make his trial noteworthy. First of all, that he was extradited to Peru from Chile and neighbouring country with whom they have never had the most cordial relations in the world (but then which neighbouring South American countries ever have sincere cordial relations one may ask?). Regional cooperation with regards to dealing with past human rights abuses seems to be an important step forward. Secondly Fujimori must be one of the first democratically elected, civilian Presidents to stand trial for crimes against humanity in South America. Former Presidents in both Argentina and Chile have stood trial but they were both military dictators. So questions may be asked as to which currently elected civilian presidents should be quaking in their boots? Please feel free to nominate any...

At the moment though Fujimori has been found guilty for some relatively minor abuses of power which will see him spend the next years in prison. In the coming months he will face further charges of the more serious accusations with regards to his role in the massacres of civilians in the Peruvian Andes.

Given so many of the problems Latin America faces on a day-to-day basis and how it lags behing the world on so many issues, it is nothing short of impressive how their otherwise weak and seemingly corrupt judiciary systems have been successful in bringing to court some of the most powerful figures of Latin American history. It's perhaps no surprise then that when the International Criminal Court was set up to pursue crimes against humanity on a worldwide basis that they chose Luis Moreno-Ocampo, an Argentine with experience their own dealing with human rights abuses to be the court’s Prosecutor.

A Surprise Defeat

2007-12-06T13:45:00.000Z

Perhaps unsurprisingly the first 15 minutes of class this Tuesday was dedicated to discussing the surprising constitutional defeat in Venezuela on Sunday. I don't think anyone really saw that one coming. With the well-oiled voting machine that makes up the Chavista movement, it seemed unfathomable that Chave would, come Monday morning, have to humbley admit defeat and congratulate the oppistion with their 'pyrrhic' victory. Chavez doesn't normally do humble and magnanimous. And I'm sure it's not going to last for no long either.

First of all what was the constitution all about? A series of amendments to the 1999 constitution which was also put forward to referendum by Chavez, but which one he was able to win convincingly. This constituion, through various amendments, was however to further set in stone some of the already highly criticised sections of the 1999 constitution along with further econimc and social reforms. One such amendment, and probably the most controversial, was the Presidents ability to be re-elected an endless amout of times and if that wasn't enough a Presidential term would have been increased from 6 to 7 years. The issue of presidential re-election in Latin America is always a touchy subject. In the acknowledgement of the region's tendency towards authoritarian, caudillo-style leaders in its past, constitutions have formally set to limit any single person's ability to stay in power for more than two terms. In Mexico, Presidents can only serve one term whilst other Latin American states in the belief that their democracies are maturing have allowed Presidents to stand for two terms. This was what Chavez was successful in doing back in 1999. But indefininte re-election? Perhaps this was a move too far by Chavez...

Other amendments included the demise of autonomy of the Central Bank (given the success of the Bank of England's autonomy here in the UK, I can only presume this would be a step in the wrong direction - but then things in Latin America aren't always that clear cut), the extension of social benefits to those who work in the informal sector (with the size of the informal sector being disproportionately large in Latin America this would have been a bold and progressive move), and most bizarrely of all the cut in maximum working hours per day from 8 to 6 hours (not even the French can manage that).

So why did he lose? Well supporters of Chavez are quick to point to the high abstention rate and the unwillingness of Chavez supportes to get out and back their man. Or perhaps it was a lack of urgency and lack of belief behind the sincerity and plausability of the social sweetners that the constitution would have allowed for. Or that despite Chavez's vocal pronouncements for the need of a yes vote to consolidate the "Bolivarian Revolution", supporters believed that the new amendments were mere sweetners as a means for Chavez to consolidate his own personal power.

So whilst the opposition were out on the streets celebrating victory, wasn't the real victor perhaps democracy itself? Whilst we had all been commenting on the gradual erosion of liberties in Venezuela and the move towards a centralisation of power, this vote and its acceptance, for now, by Chavez underlines that democracy has seemingly worked its magic and remains respected and guaranteed by both sides. Or am I just giving it the naive optimistic outlook. The 2002 coup saw how skin-deep the respect for democracy can be when push comes to shove. And perhaps Chavez was merely persuaded not to contest, or indeed fiddle with the numbers by the threat of a new coup by disgruntled military fractions.

So Chavez has no 'only' until 2013 to conclude his time as President. 'Lame Duck' presidency is not a term one could ever place on someone like Chavez even after such a setback. His supporters still control Congress, and many of the amendments will surely still be passed through those channels.

There is never a dull moment in Venezuelan current affairs and I'm sure the upcoming period will be no exception. Still it's very hard here in the UK, and never having been to Venezuela myself, to really be able to grasp what the atmosphere must be like, and how people see the future panning out. If nothing else, they can be sure the world will continue watching closely...hasta el fin.

A Quiet Revolution

2007-11-30T19:22:00.000Z

"Latin America doesn't matter...People don't give a damn about Latin America"

This was the advice given to Donald Rumsfeld by Richard Nixon back in the days of the Cold War. Strange he would say such a thing, given how his own administration would find it necessary to support the ousting of a democratically elected government just because it was little too left of centre, i.e. the coup against Allende in 1973 Chile.

But this is besides the point as this quote is how Francis Fukuyama chooses to highlight how Latin American affairs has always taken a back seat with regard to other more geo-stragetically important areas, e.g. Middle East, China, Russia, in his review article "A Quiet Revolution" on Michal Reid's "Forgotten Continent: The Battle for Latin America's Soul". Supposedly, as the title of his book suggests, Latin America is a forgotten continent, both in terms of the current US administration's willingness to engage productively with the region and in terms of the space dedicated to Latin America affairs in the mainstream media. Yes the antics of Chavez (and my blog is unfortunately no exception) may capture our attention, and as Fukayama correctly points to "more ink has been spilled on Chavez over the past few years than on the entire rest of the region combined. So whilst mainstream media is quick to highlight the latest violent street protest in Bolivia or latest political gaffe by Chavev, it has become more or less oblivious to the so-called "Quiet Revolution". A revolution of unheralded progress that is seemingly bringing renewed hope to this "forgotten continent". Progress as far as Reid is concerned with a steady deepening of democratic norms, sustained economic growth and reduction in poverty. But perhaps we should also add in my opinion an increasing independce from Washington, its political and financial institutions and actual belief and willingness to etch out for itself its own path in the world. A world that not so long ago, as far as everyone in Latin America was concerned was dominated by the hegemonic neo-liberal ideology and all its trimmings. Some call this the era of the 'post-Washington Consensus' and talk of the 'new-Left Movement' in Latin America

Fukuyama may well have borrowed the title of his article from Duncan Green's now almost seminal anti-neoliberal book, "The Silent Revolution". So can we hope that in contrast to the 'silent revolution' of neoliberalism, which brought increased pains upon the continents that this 'quiet revolution' will bring with it rekindling of hope in Latin America. I don't know... Despite statistics proving positive or negative trends in Latin America (and it's easy to find convincing data for either us optimists or pessimists), or the upbeat or scathing rhetoric played out in journals and academic circles I'm still dubious as to whether Latin America will ever be able to lift itself up to the standards of living that it deserves. But that's a problematique for you Dependency theorists...

That'll be a 'Fail' in Latin American Georgraphy

2007-11-27T18:49:00.000Z

"We have refrained from making public pronouncements about Mr. Chavez... he does not represent the future of Latin America. And the people of Peru (sic), I think deserve better in their leadership."

Good old Dick Cheney. Nice to know that he's not the only member of the White House that could do with a Latin American geography lesson some time soon.

For the record Alan Garcia is the President of Peru, and whether or not the Peruvians deserve better leadership at the moment is highly probable.

Time To Move Beyond The Pointless Rhetoric

2007-11-20T18:06:00.000Z

I would honestly love to move on from debating Hugo Chavez, or rather the pointless rhetoric and mud-slinging that follows him in his wake. It seems to me that this constant war of words between his supporters and opponents is getting to the extent that it blinds all serious analysis of what is actually going on policy-wise in Venezuela. Whether or not Chavez’s “Bolivarian Revolution” represents a credible, sustainable alternative of development Latin America? Notably last weeks' spat between Chavez and Spain's King Juan Carlos at the Ibero-American Summit in Chile seems to have dominated the news media outlets, much more so than say anything that was actually covered at the Ibero-American summit itself. "Por que no te calles" has seemingly taken on extraordinary levels of popularity, becoming a ring-tone hit alongside becoming the new the unofficial anti-Chavez slogan.

A media-war is brewing, but then again it always has done with regards to Venezuela, ever since the pivotal role the local media had in ousting of Hugo Chavez from power in the 2002 coup d'é·tat. Is their media bias for or against Chavez? Well in response to an earlier post I wrote on the student protests against Chavez I came across a document (student demonstrations in Venezuela) sent out by the Venezuelan Embassy in the US highlighting how those protests had been misrepresented in the press and basically saying how the whole event had been exploited by the mainstream media (as clueless blogger like myself) as evidence of government repression of students opposed to the government. Also that media reports had failed to report the many positive steps the Venezuelan government has taken to increase the level of university education in the country - university students now number 774,000 , an almost doubling of the number of students since 1998.

As I said it's hard to know what to believe really, when all that we hear is the latest Chavez rant. Opinions become so polarized and based on so much senseless rhetoric, all of which does little to defuse the situation and actual attempts to understand what is going on in Venezuela behind the headlines. Hopefully throughout the course of my current Master's degree we'll actually be able to tackle this topic in a seriuos academic way. So I'll keep you posted.

There's Something Rotten in the State of Venezuela

2007-11-09T20:28:00.000Z

So after yesterdays student protests, Hugo Chavez now slings out almost nonsensical allegations that fascist conspiracies are behind this increase in voiceful protests (Venezuela's Chavez Condemns Opposition). Certainly opposition is mounting against him, but at least these seem to manifest themselves in far more peaceful and lawful ways than when Chavez counters the opposition against him. The recent silencing of a nationwide TV channel that openly opposed him springs to mind. As much as I would like to agree or indeed sympathise with the social changes he is trying to implement, all this may soon come undone by the increasing authoritarian stance his Presidency is starting to take. Yes it may seem very Latin American to be ruled by yet another caudillo clad in a military uniform. But when we yet again have to witness the gradual dismantling of the democratic system and civil liberties one can only fear that in the end this could yet again set Venezuela down a course which it most definintely doesn't deserve. Chavez's goal of social justice is all very well, but not when forced through at the expense of all other civil and political rights. That's my humble opinion for now anway...

More Protests in Venezuela

2007-11-08T17:16:00.000Z

It's becoming more and more bemusing how Hugo Chavez seems to be letting things deteriorate in Venezuela. His answer to any unrest or protest now, is to crack down on civil liberties, the very same ones that enabled him to come to power and force the 2002 coup against him to eventually crumble. But perhaps he's finding it worrying that it's university students, the one demographic group you would have thought would be firm supporters of his left-wing, socialist policies, who are suddenly the ones out on the street protesting against him. So whilst this week's violence between gunmen and students was obviously nothing to do with Chavez (Gunmen fire on Venezuela protest), the atmosphere in the country seems to be of one where any protest against Chavez is fair game for any wannabe supporter of Chavez to go out and stop them. But I'm sure, with his controversial constitutional reforms in the works, this is something that will be worth commenting on for weeks & months to come. It could all end in a big mess if he doesn't watch out.

Argentina's Presidential Couple

2007-10-30T18:36:00.000Z

It’s not often full page newspaper spreads here in the UK are dedicated to Latin American politics. So perhaps it was quite a surprise to find Monday morning's newspapers adorned with the face of Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, Argentina’s newly elected President. But given the uncanny resemblances between Cristina and the only other Argentine political figure we’ve ever bound to have heard of, Evita, perhaps it shouldn't be too much of a surprise after all.

I don’t think even in Argentina people were able to get too overwhelmed by the whole election. For many the result was a forgone conclusion right from the very outset of the campaign. Was this down to the success of her husband, Nestor Kirchner, in bringing the country back from the economic and political quagmire of 2001/2002? Or was it down to the inability of the opposition forces to unite against a charismatic female leader who was always able to draw on the inevitable Evita undertones and resemblances as a sure means to derive support from the Argentine masses? Furthermore the election campaign was an unorganised affair, with people wondering as to why Nestor Kirchner chose not to stand for re-election, and why it was that Cristina spent much of the campaign abroad and less than willing to participate in debates and unveil concrete policy issues?

So Argentines are yet again left in the dark as to what expect from the future. Whilst the emergence of yet another female as a head of state in Latin America (Michelle Bachelet became the President of Chile last year) in otherwise macho dominated arena can only be a good thing, it still remains unclear as to whether she will be able to do anymore than her husband in redistributing the profits the country seems to be raking in with an annual growth rate of 8%, or be able to anything to dampen the impression of Nestor’s Kirchner’s perceived undermining of democratic processes. And how will she be able to reposition Argentina internationally after Kirchner’s presidency has left Argentina isolated, given his anti-US rhetoric and strong ties with Hugo Chavez’s Venezuela? One thing is for certain, dinner at the Kirchner’s must be quite something if her policies start to deviate considerably from those of her husband’s.

Britain's 'forgotten' invasion of Argentina

2007-10-25T18:49:00.002+01:00

Anglo-Argentine relations have always had me slightly perplexed. Being British things naturally become clouded, either by the Falklands or Argentina’s regular ability to knock us out of various football world cups - and I guess Argentina notions of England (though not British) are based upon much the same things. But in reality there’s so much more. Argentina’s fascination with typical British sports such as polo and rugby, the dominance of English-style architecture with regards to train stations and haciendas, to name but a few things. Whilst living in Argentina these things soon made me realize that Anglo-Argentine relations have been about far more than fruitless wars over tiny inconsequential islands and football matches.

Surprisingly perhaps, Britain’s colonial empire never formally penetrated Latin America. Weak South American states were never transformed into yet more British colonial outposts. Instead throughout the 19th century we focused on trade and the (forceful) creation of open Latin American markets, as a means to sell our homemade manufactured goods. An “informal empire” or “business imperialism” of sorts. And it was with Argentina, more than any other Latin American state, that this was evident. But things in Argentina could have been so, so different.

Last Friday’s seminar, an event co-hosted by my institute (the Institute for the Study of the Americas) and the Argentine Embassy, was a commemoration of the bi-centenary anniversary of Britain’s invasion of Buenos Aires in 1806. The auditorium was full with a noticeably large Argentine contingent. What better way to spend a Friday afternoon reliving the accounts of one Argentina’s proud nationalistic moments in history, moreover, one that involved the catastrophic defeat of the British. The Argentine ambassador welcomed the guests, and proceeded in a highly diplomatic fashion to paint a rosy picture of Anglo-Argentine relations, taking an obviously large bypass around the misfortunate events of 1982. Though I’m sure much can be gleaned from his phrasing of how the UK came to acquire the Falkland’s in the first place with the use explicit use of the term “invasion”. Thereafter two prominent Argentine historians gave their impression of the importance of Britain’s invasion of Buenos Aires.

A notable point about the invasion was that it was never officially sanctioned by the British government. It was more of a rogue operation by a couple of maverick British Navy officers. In that sense it resembled the highly successful conquest policy of the Spaniards and its swashbuckling conquistadores. So whilst the venture was initially a success with Buenos Aires being captured, it merely succeeded in stirring a hornet’s nest and an Argentine militia soon had the British forces on the run. Ultimately this set in motion the desire for an independent Argentina in 1816. Strangely though, the whole British invasion is hardly mentioned in our history books, a mere footnote at most.
But I don’t want to bore you any more with too much historical information. Thankfully the talk didn’t linger on for too long, much to the satisfaction, no doubt, for the rest of the audience as well. An extravagant wine reception to be put on by the Embassy awaited and most Argentines were equally itching to find their way to the nearest TV screen to enjoy Argentina’s thumping of France in the rugby world cup (soon we're going to have world cup defeats in rugby to those accumulated in football to our list of grievances).

Yet More Manipulated Figures - this time in Argentina

2007-10-22T13:25:00.000+01:00

As mentioned in my previous post, one shouldn't always take at face value economic statistics, especially when they enable the ruling powers of the day to revel in the data's overwhelmingly positive outlooks. Last week Cuban economist Carmelo Mesa-Lago warned us about the significant economic growth figures coming out of Cuba, and suggested the various ways in how they could have been 'manipulated'. Well today I came across the following article, "Will Cristina Head Off Another Crisis?" The articles relates, as in a similar fashion to the reliability of Cuba economic data, to the reliability of Argentina economic statistics and as to whether or not the Argentine government is taking increasing liberties with regards to the compilation of such statistics (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7035500.stm).

Despite Argentina's impressive growth in the recent years, it can be said that President Kirchner has taken a very hands-on and at times quite unorthodox approaches as a means to boost growth and curb inflation. For instance during my stay in the country, Kirchner encouraged a nation-wide boycott of various international petrol companies (most notably Shell). He saw their price increases as highly detrimental to his own attempts curb to inflation.
Now it seems fiddling with official economic statistics may be his latest of weapons to curb inflation. So whilst 'official' inflation rates stand at 9%, many believe it actually to be as high as 15%-20%. Who to believe? Well according to one economist, "since January, when the government doesn't like what the official figures are telling it - it decided basically to modify those figures." And these can never be too promising when the actual institute for the collection of economic data in Argentina (INDEC) actually start demonstrating themselves protest over this supposed government interference.

Aside from the manipulation of statistics the BBC article quite rightly highlights other pressing issues which can be easily forgotten amidst the figures of seemingly impressive economic growth. Economic growth means little when it's poorly distributed. An example of which can be seen in Argentina's southern oil-rich province of Santa Cruz. Violent labour disputes continue to highlight the disaffection towards the regional government and its ability to distribute the benefits of the oil boom. An in the far north, in the province of Chaco, people continue to be dying of hunger and living in houses made of mud and sticks and without access to running water. Furthermore the article draws or attention to how the sudden rise in genetically modified soya in Chaco, whilst enabling short-term gains, will likely lead to vast tracts of lands being left barren due to the soils' lack of nutrients, something that will prove highly detrimental for the land in the long-term.

So whilst the signs of economic growth may be evident to see for those stuck in the splendour of downtown Buenos Aires, or for those who limit themselves to looking at GDP growth statistics - whether you believe them or not - all isn't as rosy as it seems.

The Cuban Economy at Crossroads: Fidel's Legacies and Raul's Alternative Paths

2007-10-20T16:07:00.001+01:00

Of the many things the Institute for the Study of the Americas highlights as unique is their impressive seminar series. Many an afternoon the institute is visited by top Latin American scholars who are given the chance to spell out their latest theories and consequential musing on developments within evolving areas of study in the region. We students are encouraged to tag along, sit at the back quietly and observe what we one day may wish to be a part of. Today’s afternoon talk was no exception.

Carmelo Mesa-Lago an old hunched Cuban, whose student days in Havana were lived out amidst the actual Cuban Revolution, and whose CV lists 70 odd books and 200 plus articles on Latin American economics gave a talk titled, “The Cuban Economy at Crossroads: Fidel's Legacies and Raul's Alternative Paths”. Of all the seminars I had been attended so far here at the institute this was by far the most well-attended. Unsurpringly I suppose.
Because what is it about Cuba, of all the Latin American countries that constantly brings out the crowds? Go in to your local Waterstones, head towards the Latin American history section - if such a section even exists - and guaranteed 90% of the books on sale will be associated with the now mythical events of the Cuban Revolution or biographies depciting its equally mythical protagonists, Fidel Castro and Che Guevara. In Latin American terms, it’s an anomaly, geographically, culturally, historically and most definitely politically. Any study of Cuba does little to enhance our understandings of what may be considered the more typical Latin American states, their societies and their economies. Since the end of the Cold War, Cuba has been of little relevance in the grand scheme of things. Its economy, insignificant; its political weight, equally insignificant. So why should we continue to devote so much attention to Cuba, to continue to want to understand and ultimately to advise as to how this island best can tackle its uncertain future. It would be no revelation to note the leftist leanings amongst many Latin American departments so perhaps therefore it's no surprise that we all like to sit back and admire this plucky little island that took on the giant to the north , politically, militarily and ideologically. This socialist experiment was one that never became mired by the dreary Eastern bloc imagery of grey, uniform populations. No Cuba did socialism in style, under the palm trees, with Cuban cigars and Bacardi all to a Buena Vista Social Club soundtrack…or at least that’s the imagery we wished to bestow upon it. And if nothing else, we can supposedly bang on about its relatively high standards of health and education. But really these excuses and false impressions can only go for so long.

Slight tangent that…..but anyway Carmelo Mesa-Lago did much in his hour long presentation to dispel the myths of the current state of the Cuban economy. When Fidel eventually leaves us all he’ll be leaving behind an economy that is in desperate need of reform. Carmelo’s PowerPoint presentation, whilst low on clear informative bullet points, was high on deep complex economic data graphs (thankfully this week’s class in economics had brought me up to speed on my GDP’s and trade balances). Recent economic data shows that Cuba has seen impressive growth, but as far as Carmelo Mesa-Lago was concerned such data had been ‘manipulated’ by the Cuban government so as to hide its continual sluggish growth. In fact the whole presentation was based around looking behind the raw numbers of Cuba’s economy whilst basically coming to the conclusions that a) Cuba’s economy was not performing very well, b) that much of the Cuban economy was sustained by either unnaturally high commodity prices and Hugo Chavez’s generosity and c) that Cuba would be best off if Fidel finally decided to call it a day, and let his younger brother implement vital decentralizing and liberalizing economic reforms.
Admittedly pages full of confusing numbers and percentage points didn’t leave me nor much of the audience gagging for more. Instead his conclusions were meant by quite skeptical glances and belief that he was yet another of these economists that wished to do away with any form of state involvement in the state, let market forces do their thing. Perhaps audience members were unwilling to do away with the socialist dream, or perhaps they were making valid concerns as to not let Cuba’s admirable ambitions and ideology become swept away in one single stroke.

As far as I’m concerned the jury is still out. Cuba has to move on from what Fidel and all that he stood for, onto a system that is more sustainable and not dependent on the financial hand-outs that Hugo Chavez seems more than happy to continue with. Surely this can be achieved along with equal goals of maintaining a strong health and education system that has won Cuba so many accolades from abroad.