The Demise of Regional Division in Bolivia?

The rise of Santa Cruz as the political and economic hegemonic power has been evident the last many decades in Bolivia. Under President Evo Morales however, it has seen its ability to frame the shape of the country undermined. This has resulted in clashes, both in Congress, the constituent assembly and in the streets of Santa Cruz and other ‘media luna’ towns. The media in its typical simplistic terms depicting the struggle as one of poor, indigenous, ardent Morales supporters of the Western Highlands up against the rich, white, land-rich Eastern Provinces of Santa Cruz et al.

Where do these regional clashes leave Bolivia and what is the future of Santa Cruz’s political and economic power base? These were some of the questions the Bolivian academic, George Grey Molina, tried to answer in a brief talk he gave at the Institute for the Study of the Americas here in London this week. After weeks and months of bad news and confrontation coming out of Bolivia, George Molina’s hypotheses had a surprisingly upbeat tone about them.

He began his talk by going over recent events since the violent clashes that erupted across Bolivia, and most notably in Pando - the remote northern department. See "State of siege, more violence in Bolivian province Pando (Roundup)"

Essentially, the out-of-control violence that threatened to escalate across the nation forced Morales supporters and opponents to sit down and set out a timeline for an upcoming constitutional referendum. A constitution that now includes enough amendments to keep the majority of Morales’ opponents content for the time being. It has also given it the necessary nationwide legitimacy that makes it likely to pass when it’s put to a referendum early next year.

George Molina was at pains to point out that Morales had emerged from these agreements with his power consolidated , whilst the power of Santa Cruz had been severely constrained. Santa Cruz’s power has traditionally stemmed from its economic power ( i.e. it’s ownership of the wealthy soya- exporting lands of the East) and its ability to transfer this economic leverage into political power through an increased presence on the national political stage and in its move towards greater regional autonomy. However for a number of reasons these foundations seem to be slowly crumbling:

1. National Politics: the national political stage has been transformed under Morales’ presidency with the old Santa Cruz elite having been usurped by a Morales elite that has consolidated itself after this summers’ national recall referendum.



2. Santa Cruz Economy: The Cruceño economy is perhaps not as strong as it once was. Commodity prices, on which it heavily depends, haven fallen through the floor. Vast tracts of arable land are no longer the most country’s most important asset – there will a transfer of economic power to those actors in the economy who can process the country’s resources, i.e. those who can produce value-added goods.



3. Demographics: Santa Cruz is no longer predominantly made up of the white European decedents, who in their day were able to create a unique Cruceño identity – migration to the region from across Bolivia has meant that it is taking on other characteristics that are…more Bolivian.



4. Did Not Create a Viable National Politics: Whilst Santa Cruz was on the ascendency it showed little in its politics that it could become the vessel of change that Bolivia so badly needs. It did little to diversify its economy from primary resources and next to nothing in cooperating with neighboring countries. Instead it promoted a politics that retained the status quo and essentially the privilege of the few over the masses.



5. Natural Gas Capital has moved to Tarija: Unlike Santa Cruz, Tarija has no history of separatist ambitions and looks unlikely to spear-head a new regional hegemony.

As far as George Molina is concerned the above arguments point towards a situation in Bolivia where regional politics no longer plays the same divisive role as it has done in the past and with so much intensity during Morales’ presidency until now.

Of course that is not to say that this will mark an end to all regional disputes. Indeed it is now up to Morales and his grand goals of moving the Bolivian economy beyond commodity-led growth; towards an economy that creates industrialists and deep linkages within the economy and between regions. Only if this is achieved will regionalist movements, like the ones in Santa Cruz, cease to have the influence that they have had for the last many decades.

The Freezing of US-Bolivian Relations

Before the world financial crisis enveloped the world's news media and when news from Latin American actually made it across the Atlantic, there was the episode of diplomatic tit-for-tat tussling that involved the expulsion of US ambassadors from Bolivia, Venezuela and Honduras. Media outlets jumping naturally at the chance to picture yet another fiery anti-imperialist outburst by demagogue Hugo Chávez.

That the flurry of departing ambassadors had its origin in Bolivia is now long forgotten. With the US having retaliated by expelling Bolivia’s ambassador to Washington I would have that would have been that…just let the simmering US-Bolivian hostilities be. Let's just wait until a new US administration can come into the White House and proclaim their ‘good neighbourliness’ towards the region it sort out the mess – but that’s a topic to be discussed in another post further down the line.

But no... George Bush has taken it upon himself to ensure that Bolivia realizes the errors of their ways. Since 1991, Bolivia has benefited from the Andean Trade Preference Act (ATPDEA) that allowed certain Bolivian exporters favourable access to the US market. This in exchange for Bolivian cooperation in tackling illegal coca production. Overriding Congress and their decision two weeks ago to extend the agreement, Bush has chosen in a single stroke threaten the livelihood of thousands of Bolivians, by suspending the agreement. A possible 20,000 Bolivians may lose their jobs as companies face closure without access to the lucrative US market.

Here is a video the Bolivian-based NGO, The Democracy Center posted showing the plight of a number of workers face in light of this decision by the Bush administration.



As much as I can sympathise with those who point to Morales' lack of diplomatic finesse in throwing out the US ambassador, I find it hard to agree that this justifies the decision by Bush to, in a single stroke, threaten the livelihood of thousands of Bolivians, especially in the midst of world financial crisis where it will be the Bolivias of the world that will face the direst of consequences. Besides, won't this only legitimise his anti-American stance and worsen legitimate US attempts to tackle coca production?

Anti-Americanism Alive and Well in Latin America

An e-mail in my inbox asked me to part with a few hours of my time last Wednesday, standing outside in the Autumn cold and picketing the US embassy here in London. US ambassadors to Bolivia and Venezuela were in the space of a couple of days sent packing amidst accusations of fomenting regional violence in Bolivia and plotting to overthrow Chávez. According to the protesters:

US President George W Bush has made it his top priority to overthrow the new left-wing governments in Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador and others before he leaves office at the end of the year (www.handsoffvenezuela.org)

Whilst I have no doubt that the US would shed no tears if either Evo Morales or Hugo Chávez were finally toppled, the recent expulsions of the respective US ambassadors has far more to do with Morales' and Chávez's populist support to a large extent consolidated by their anti-US positions.

With Russian battleships on course for Venezuelan waters for joint exercises, US may indeed have cause for concern regarding Chávez's strategic alliances - "Russian navy sails to Venezuela." Is this yet more evidence of yesteryear's Cold War battle lines being redrawn as Russia strengthens its ties in and increases its presence in Latin America - just as it did in Cuba in the 1960s? And then there are continuing anti-democratic measures taken by Chávez; the most recent being the expelling of human rights activists after having accused Chávez's government of "openly endors[ing] acts of discrimination" - "Venezuela expels two human rights activist" But are these legitimate causes for concern enough for the US to reattempt its misguided foray into overthrowing democratically elected leaders?

And what does the US gain from further destabilising Bolivia? Aside from the issue of Morales' government not doing enough to cut down on coca production, there is very little his government can be accused of that directly goes against US interests. The US has little interest in Bolivian gas reserves and their recent nationalisation. And surely they must realise that the toppling of a President that only weeks was strengthened his mandate with 67% of the popular vote in the recall referendum.

The history of US interventionism etched into the Latin American psyche, the extent to which it imbues populist rhetoric, ultimately renders the need for sound reasoning behind these anti-US conspiracies completely unnecessary. Even with George Bush at the helm, this mode of politics should not play a central role in any Latin American nations' foreign policy. Yes, the USA is by no means the 'Good Neighbour' it had once set itself up to be. But far more stands to be lost in the long-term by doing your utmost to strain relations with USA, merely for the purpose of short-term populist/nationalist gains.

This is not to say that the US are wholeheartedly innocent either. Failing to show strong enough support for the democratically-elected leaders of both countries is seen as a green light for opposition movements in Venezuela and Bolivia to challenge their Presidents in any way they see fit - as was the case with the failed coup in Venezuela in 2002 and with the violence in Bolivia right now.

Needless to say I did not spend last Wednesday afternoon picketing the US embassy.

Bolivia Election: Post-Mortem

It's been almost two weeks since the recall referendum took place in Bolivia. I have been wanting to comment on it for a while now, but a mixture of being stuck with my dissertation, transfixed to the TV watching the Olympics, working 9-5 as in intern with Latinnews.com, and last but not least, without Internet connection has meant that I've been somewhat incapable of posting anything of relevance of late.

So anyway it was meant to be ‘make or break’ time for President Evo Morales. I for one harboured doubts as to whether he would be able to win over the electorate given that Bolivia seems to be on the brink of internal collapse.

Opposition leaders in Santa Cruz et.el (or the "Media Luna" as the best known by) have been relentless in their critique of Evo Morales, and the international media has been quick to catch onto images of protests, blockades and violent skirmishes.

However, the fact that Morales won a resounding 67% of the vote and even encroaching upon the popularity of the “Media Luna” regional leaders (whose leadership was also up for re-election), shows that underneath the surface, the Bolivian majority still believe in giving Morales and his indigenous/socialist/resource-nationalist experiment a chance.

Anyway for a far better analysis of where the recall referendum leaves Bolivia, there is no one better than Jim Shultz (head of the NGO 'The Democracy Centre') and his “Blog from Bolivia” and his post, "Bolivia Election: Post Mortem"

Violent Outbreaks in Santa Cruz

The Bolivian government seeks to charge opposition prefect Ruben Costas for stirring up violence over the weekend in Santa Cruz as rifts between the government and the “media luna” department heighten.

Santa Cruz’s chief of police, Wilge Obleas, has been forced to stand down on medical grounds, after having suffered injuries in the violent attacks that marred Santa Cruz this weekend. In the wake of the police forcefully removing protestors from a YPFB installation, disturbances broke out between the police force and radical autonomists, including the Unión Juvenil Cruceñista (UJC), resulting in more than 20 people being wounded. The government has since accused Rúben Costas and president of the civic committee Branco Marincovik for the subsequent attacks on the police headquarters in Santa Cruz, in what it sees as calculated attempt to provoke increasing levels of violence in the opposition-led department and undermine the national police force. Santa Cruz prefect Rubén Costas, however, lays the blame at the government’s feet and is now demanding that any future police chief be accountable to him and not the national governemt. Nevertheless, it remains to be seen how any judicial proceedings will brought against the Costas and Marincovik given the legal vacuum at the top of Bolivia’s judiciary due to vacancies in key judicial institutions, or whether this is an conscious attempt by the government to isolate Rúben Costas after “media luna’s” disappointing results in the recall referendum.

In the aftermath of last week’s recall referendum, which resulted in Evo Morles having secured more than 67% of the vote, there has been a move by the Bolivian government to increase the dialogue with the “media luna” departments. The fact that Evo Morales was able to increase his vote in all four of the opposition-held departments, with a majority of Bolivians supporting him in previously hostile departments of Tarija and Pando, has weakened the mandate of the “media luna” in their bid for increased autonomy.

The rift between the central government and the “media luna” is set to deepen with opposition leaders in the 5 departments planning general strikes for next Tuesday. The regional opposition leaders are demanding that the government retract the move to redirect the IDH revenues that previously went to the regions themselves. The government uses this additional tax revenue to fund a nation-wide pension plan. The gas rich department, on the hand, believe that the loss of revenue will limit their ability to carry out important regional projects.

Bolivia in the National Geographic

Whilst Bolivian politics takes yet another ugly turn - Evo Morales in a recall referendum and further clamouring from the Eastern provinces - photos from a recent National Geographic article reminds us of the natural wonders that have been endowed upon this troubles Andean nation. For some truly great photos from Bolivia's vast Altiplano region check out this interactive map "Photography Map: Altiplano"

Of course the articles that go along with dazzling photos (Bolivia's New Order & Riding with Evo) try hard to give an accessible account of the rise of Bolivia's new order,"the ascent to power of a new elite of militant indigenous people." And along the way you do get the feeling that they've been carried away slightly by this over-romanticised indigenous uprising and fail to question the viability of the country's current direction. But hey it's the National Geographic for goodness sake, not The Economist. So hats off for them for that, and besides who honestly can't get slightly carried away by this astonishing rise from rural serfdom to the Presidential Palace, which the indigenous people have undertaken in recent decades...I was.

“¡El Gas Nos Pertenece Por Derecho!”: The Nationalisation Of Bolivian Gas As A Viable Means To Development?

Given that I’ll be spending the next 2 months of my life frantically putting together my Master’s dissertation I guess I will be giving the general Latin American news stuff a bit of a rest. However, I do still intend to keep posting, though I’m afraid that you’ll have to make do with all things Bolivian, especially if they relate to Evo Morales’ attempts at renationalizing the hydrocarbon sector.

The President's League Table

Nothing beats the clarity of good old-fashioned list...

So here's an interesting one I stumbled across recently - by means of Greg Week's Latin American blog, 'Two Weeks Notice'. It lists the current popularity ratings amongst Latin American Presidents.

1. 84% Álvaro Uribe, Colombia (3/08)


2. 61% Felipe Calderón, Mexico (5/08)


3. 55% Antonio Saca, El Salvador (5/08)


4. 55% Evo Morales, Bolivia (5/08)


5. 55% Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, Brazil (3/08)


6. 54% Hugo Chávez, Venezuela (4/08)


7. 53% Rafael Correa, Ecuador (6/08)


8. 51% Martín Torrijos, Panama (4/08)


9. 49% Álvaro Colom, Guatemala (3/08)


10. 45% Tabaré Vázquez, Uruguay (3/08)


11. 44% Oscar Arias, Costa Rica (4/08)


12. 44% Michelle Bachelet, Chile (6/08)


13. 38% Manuel Zelaya, Honduras (2/08)


14. 34% Stephen Harper, Canada (3/08)


15. 32% Alan García, Peru (6/08)


16. 30% George W. Bush, United States (6/08)


17. 26% Cristina Fernández, Argentina (5/08)


18. 21% Daniel Ortega, Nicaragua (2/08)
    
19. 5% Nicanor Duarte, Paraguay (3/08)

I'm not too sure as to how much we can read into this. I guess it's no surprise that Colombia's Uribe tops the list. I was chatting with a Colombian guy the other week, and having asked him whether he thought Uribe was good or bad for the country he responded, "he's neither good nor bad...he's AMAZING!" His effectiveness in tackling the FARC guerillas, keeping the economy relatively stable and taking head-on the likes of Chavez and Correa, no doubt playing a part in his popularity. Still I'm not to sure international human rights groups will be to keen in praising his presidency.

Other than that, the Presidents of the "New Left" (Chavez, Correa, Lula, Morales) all seem to be doing alright, though I'm sure they must be down from where they would have been this time last year. And then there's poor old Cristina Fernandez who really is making a dog's dinner out of the popularity she had inherited over from her husband, Nestor Kirchner.

Racism in Bolivia

Anti-indigenous racism has become an increasingly evident subtext to the political divide that is gradually pulling Bolivia apart.

Last week in Sucre this boiled over on the night before Evo Morales’ visit to the city. Organized groups, antagonistic to Evo Morales and the MAS party started to provoke disturbances and challenge the police and the army. With Morales’ visit cancelled, the army and police forced off the streets and the organised gangs were able to vent their anger towards the groups of indigenous peasants who had travelled to Sucre to welcome the President.

For a full explanation of how the disturbances unfold it is worth reading this article: Bolivian Racism Runs Amok in Bolivia.

Or you can take a look at this video footage, though you have to fast forward ca. 1 min into the video before anything appears

Two More Bolivian Regions 'Back Autonomy'

News Update from Bolivia.

This Sunday, the inevitable march towards heightened regional divide in Bolivia was cemented with yet two more regions in Bolivia – Beni and Pando – voting overwhelmingly to declare further autonomy from the central government.

Whilst local citizens took the streets in celebration, the central government tried - as in the Santa Cruz province a couple of weeks back – to call the election illegal and unconstitutional and somehow draw some grain of solace from the ‘high’ levels of absenteeism. As one government minister Alfredo Rada optimistically tried to put it, "en el departamento de Pando, podemos decir con toda claridad que este intento ilegal e inconstitucional de imponer estatutos ha sido firmemente rechazado por el pueblo pandino". And added, "el pueblo dijo autonomía SÍ pero estatutos NO".

In a few weeks it’ll be the turn of the Tarija department (the last of the so-called ‘Media Luna’ group) to go down this predictable electoral path in their own autonomy vote.

How in the world will Evo Morales and the central government ever be able to reconcile the yawning geographic divide that is driving this country apart? If you think the problems are bad now, I’m sure they could get a whole lot more conflictive if Evo Morales survives the recall referendum on his presidency (penciled in for August) and then pushes for the public referendum on his draft constitution. A constitution that was approved last year by his MAS party, but conveniently boycotted by the opposition politicians who are now behind this regional autonomy move.

Unfortunately along with this geographic divide, a more serious anti-indigenous racial divide continues to be unleashed. But more on this later…

More Political Shenanigans in Bolivia (where else?)

Economic development is hard enough to achieve in Bolivia without the persistent destabilising forces that constantly undermine the President-of-the-day's attempt to steer the country down some sort of sustainable developmental path.

The recent political shenanigans in Bolivia only serve to underscore the perpetual political instability the country has had to deal with and how it's seriously destabilizing for the country in the long-run.

After last week's autonomy vote in Santa Cruz, Bolivia's President, Evo Morales, is seeking to tackle his opponents head-on in a nationwide referendum on his Presidency. I struggle to see what good this is going to do. Win-or-lose, this referendum is bound to cause yet more division throughout the country. It will further set in stone the gradual partition of the country along the geographic East and West divide, and perhaps more worryingly accentuate the increasing racial divide.



Morales's argument is, "if we politicians can't agree, it's best that the population decide our destiny."



I haven't followed Bolivian politics closely enough to comment objectively on whether Morales, his populist, and at times misguided nationalistic policies, and indigenista appeal are inherently the cause of this widening divide or whether this division is the natural knee-jerk reaction of the Bolivian elites (now increasingly settled in the Eastern provinces) given the inroads made into their long-held privileges.



Either way, the up shoot of all this can hardly be good for the long-term development of Bolivia. At least the country still remains determined to stick to democratic principles to sort out their differences.

Bolivia in the News

It's all kicking off in Bolivia this week...

The Socialist/Nationalist credentials of the Morales government were further enhanced this week when they announced that they were taking over the country's majour telecommunications company along with a bunch of energy companies. Of course this was timed for the May Day celebrations. Given the rise in food prices, continuing inflation worries and the well documented autonomy aspirations of the gas-rich Eastern provinces, Morales must have been feeling quite hot under the collar. Things have definitely not been going to well for him of late.

Today's move towards autonomy in the Santa Cruz has been a long time in the making and will hardly help any move towards reconciliation between the 'poor' Western and 'rich' Eastern provinces. I may be biased - having lived in La Paz and genuinely wanting Evo Morales to succeed in his commitment to readdress centuries of discrimination toward the indigenous people - but as long as the Santa Cruz autonomy movement is founded upon a desire to reap the rewards of the gas fields for themselves I can't see them gaining much ground. Their case is further weakened by the inherent racial undertones that underlie much of the anti-Morales sentiment. The belief that he is merely a puppet of Chavez is also a weak one given how the MAS movement has been in force long before Chavez came to power.

Still it's been almost 3 years since I've been in Bolivia, so who am I to say what is really going on over there.

The Unifying Powers of Football?

It's good to know that despite the recent dire political wranglings in Bolivia that only a matter of days needed to pass before Boliva's other main passion was back to dominate the newspaper front pages. I had gone on to the website of El Diario (Bolivia's oldest and probably most well respected daily newspaper) fully expecting to see large images of more conflictual demonstations or some photo of Evo Morales along wiht his latest tirade of accusations aginst that rebellious lot in the conrty's gas-rich Eastern provinces.





But no, instead the front page was devoted to the news that all Bolivians can rejoice (yes even those of the East) in the news that the Latin American football confederation, CONMEBOL, has refused to follow initial FIFA guidelines by allowing all international games to be played at altitude. This means Bolivia will be allowed the significant of advantage of playing all their home games at the dizzy heights of 3637 meters above sea-level. But in all honesty I don't think have any realistic chance of qualifying for the forthcoming World Cup in South Africa in 2010. Their latest defeat to the minnows of Venezueala proving that they're hardly ever going to world-beaters. Furthermore other domestic temas in Bolivia, ie those from Oruro and Potosi, will also get to play their home games of the Copa Libertadores in their respective high-altitude stadiums. Yes the Eastern lowlands may have all the gas, but when it comes to fútbol the highlanders are forever dominat.

Still it was nice to see that despite all the differences in the country there are still a few things like football that still have the capability of uniting the country. Or is itjust evidence that I obviously haven't been in Bolivia the last few years and that I have no real grasp nor understanding ofthe ever-deepening rifts that have seemingly split the country in two since the election of Evo Morales.