Showing posts with label Nestor Kirchner. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nestor Kirchner. Show all posts

Tuesday, 30 October 2007

Argentina's Presidential Couple


It’s not often full page newspaper spreads here in the UK are dedicated to Latin American politics. So perhaps it was quite a surprise to find Monday morning's newspapers adorned with the face of Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, Argentina’s newly elected President. But given the uncanny resemblances between Cristina and the only other Argentine political figure we’ve ever bound to have heard of, Evita, perhaps it shouldn't be too much of a surprise after all.

I don’t think even in Argentina people were able to get too overwhelmed by the whole election. For many the result was a forgone conclusion right from the very outset of the campaign. Was this down to the success of her husband, Nestor Kirchner, in bringing the country back from the economic and political quagmire of 2001/2002? Or was it down to the inability of the opposition forces to unite against a charismatic female leader who was always able to draw on the inevitable Evita undertones and resemblances as a sure means to derive support from the Argentine masses? Furthermore the election campaign was an unorganised affair, with people wondering as to why Nestor Kirchner chose not to stand for re-election, and why it was that Cristina spent much of the campaign abroad and less than willing to participate in debates and unveil concrete policy issues?

So Argentines are yet again left in the dark as to what expect from the future. Whilst the emergence of yet another female as a head of state in Latin America (Michelle Bachelet became the President of Chile last year) in otherwise macho dominated arena can only be a good thing, it still remains unclear as to whether she will be able to do anymore than her husband in redistributing the profits the country seems to be raking in with an annual growth rate of 8%, or be able to anything to dampen the impression of Nestor’s Kirchner’s perceived undermining of democratic processes. And how will she be able to reposition Argentina internationally after Kirchner’s presidency has left Argentina isolated, given his anti-US rhetoric and strong ties with Hugo Chavez’s Venezuela? One thing is for certain, dinner at the Kirchner’s must be quite something if her policies start to deviate considerably from those of her husband’s.

Monday, 22 October 2007

Yet More Manipulated Figures - this time in Argentina

As mentioned in my previous post, one shouldn't always take at face value economic statistics, especially when they enable the ruling powers of the day to revel in the data's overwhelmingly positive outlooks. Last week Cuban economist Carmelo Mesa-Lago warned us about the significant economic growth figures coming out of Cuba, and suggested the various ways in how they could have been 'manipulated'. Well today I came across the following article, "Will Cristina Head Off Another Crisis?" The articles relates, as in a similar fashion to the reliability of Cuba economic data, to the reliability of Argentina economic statistics and as to whether or not the Argentine government is taking increasing liberties with regards to the compilation of such statistics (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7035500.stm).

Despite Argentina's impressive growth in the recent years, it can be said that President Kirchner has taken a very hands-on and at times quite unorthodox approaches as a means to boost growth and curb inflation. For instance during my stay in the country, Kirchner encouraged a nation-wide boycott of various international petrol companies (most notably Shell). He saw their price increases as highly detrimental to his own attempts curb to inflation.
Now it seems fiddling with official economic statistics may be his latest of weapons to curb inflation. So whilst 'official' inflation rates stand at 9%, many believe it actually to be as high as 15%-20%. Who to believe? Well according to one economist, "since January, when the government doesn't like what the official figures are telling it - it decided basically to modify those figures." And these can never be too promising when the actual institute for the collection of economic data in Argentina (INDEC) actually start demonstrating themselves protest over this supposed government interference.

Aside from the manipulation of statistics the BBC article quite rightly highlights other pressing issues which can be easily forgotten amidst the figures of seemingly impressive economic growth. Economic growth means little when it's poorly distributed. An example of which can be seen in Argentina's southern oil-rich province of Santa Cruz. Violent labour disputes continue to highlight the disaffection towards the regional government and its ability to distribute the benefits of the oil boom. An in the far north, in the province of Chaco, people continue to be dying of hunger and living in houses made of mud and sticks and without access to running water. Furthermore the article draws or attention to how the sudden rise in genetically modified soya in Chaco, whilst enabling short-term gains, will likely lead to vast tracts of lands being left barren due to the soils' lack of nutrients, something that will prove highly detrimental for the land in the long-term.

So whilst the signs of economic growth may be evident to see for those stuck in the splendour of downtown Buenos Aires, or for those who limit themselves to looking at GDP growth statistics - whether you believe them or not - all isn't as rosy as it seems.